Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – March 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc., is a food production company. The Company’s operations are conducted in five segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork, Prepared Foods and International. Chicken, includes domestic operations related of raising and processing live chickens into fresh, frozen and value-added chicken products, and sales of allied products. Beef, includes operations related to processing live fed cattle and fabricating dressed beef carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts and case-ready products. Pork, includes operations related to processing live market hogs and fabricating pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal cuts and case-ready products. Prepared Foods, includes operations related to manufacturing and marketing frozen and refrigerated food products and logistics operations of products through the supply chain. International, includes foreign operations related to raising and processing live chickens into fresh, frozen and value-added chicken products in across countries.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$36.51|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$21.40|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||3.33%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$20.91|
Balance Sheet – December 2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Tyson Foods Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio and the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities. From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2011 to an estimated $2.52 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 3.33% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.