5 Highest Dividend Yields Among Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015
There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the five highest dividend yields among the undervalued companies reviewed by ModernGraham. Each company has been determined to be suitable for Defensive Investor according to the ModernGraham approach. This is a sample of one screen that is included in ModernGraham Stocks & Screens, which is available for premium subscribers.  Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.
Be sure to check out the history of this screen!
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Chevron passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The only issue the Defensive Investor has with the company is the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, but is willing to overlook those concerns since the company qualifies for the more conservative Defensive Investor. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, Chevron has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $8.58 in 2010 to $11.43 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 0.42% annually over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 6.63% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)
Helmerich & Payne (HP)
Helmerich & Payne Inc. is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of each investor type, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.24 in 2011 to an estimated $5.11 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
National Oilwell Varco passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the short dividend history, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, NOV has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.88 in 2010 to $5.45 for 2014. This is a strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 0.34% annually over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 8.11% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)
CA Inc. (CA)
CA passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The only issue the Defensive Investor has with the company is the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, but is willing to overlook those concerns since the company qualifies for the more conservative Defensive Investor. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, CA has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.33 in 2011 to an estimated $2.13 for 2015. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 3.44% over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 12.1% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)
Macerich Co. (MAC)
Macerich Company is a rare REIT which qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor has only one concern, which is regarding the low current ratio, and since the company qualifies for the more conservative Defensive Investor, the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.22 in 2010 to $4.96 in 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 4.14% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 yeas.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price.  (See the full valuation)
What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing those holdings within the next 72 hours. Â Company logos are taken from Wikipedia or the company website for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this website is not affiliated with the companies it writes about in any way.
