Machinery Stocks

Xylem Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $XYL

Xylem_LogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Xylem Inc. (XYL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Xylem Inc. (Xylem) is engaged in design, manufacturing, and application of engineered technologies for the water industry. The Company is an equipment and service provider for water and wastewater applications with a portfolio of products and services addressing the full cycle of water, from collection, distribution and use to the return of water to the environment. It operates in two segments: Water Infrastructure and Applied Water. The Water Infrastructure segment focuses on the transportation, treatment and testing of water, offering a range of products, including water and wastewater pumps, treatment and testing equipment, and controls and systems. Key brands in this segment include Flygt, Wedeco, Godwin Pumps, WTW, Sanitaire, AADI and Leopold. The Applied Water segment encompasses the uses of water and focuses on the residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural markets.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $36.99
MG Value $29.45
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $23.93
Value Based on 0% Growth $14.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.95%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.59
PEmg 22.41
Current Ratio 2.37
PB Ratio 3.41

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $1,973,000,000
Current Liabilities $833,000,000
Total Debt $1,195,000,000
Total Assets $4,620,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,028,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,631,000,000
Outstanding Shares 183,100,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $1.82
2014 $1.83
2013 $1.22
2012 $1.59
2011 $1.50
2010 $1.78
2009 $1.42
2008 $0.00
2007 $0.00
2006 $0.00
2005 $0.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $1.65
2014 $1.57
2013 $1.46
2012 $1.48
2011 $1.26
2010 $0.97

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Xylem Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the short dividend history and the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.26 in 2011 to an estimated $1.65 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.95% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Xylem Inc. (XYL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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