Xcel Energy Analysis – June 2015 Update $XEL
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – June 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Xcel Energy (XEL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Xcel Energy Inc. is a public utility holding company. The Company’s operations include the activity of four wholly owned utility subsidiaries that serve electric and natural gas customers in eight states. These utility subsidiaries are NSP-Minnesota NSP-Wisconsin, Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) and Southwestern Public Service Co. (SPS) and serve customers in portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. Its segments include regulated electric utility, regulated natural gas utility and all other. The regulated electric utility segment generates, transmits and distributes electricity in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New Mexico. Regulated electric utility also includes commodity trading operations. The regulated natural gas utility segment transports, stores and distributes natural gas primarily in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4Â of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $32.45 |
| MG Value | $30.07 |
| MG Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $28.29 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $16.59 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 4.06% |
| NCAV | -$46.53 |
| PEmg | 16.63 |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 |
| PB Ratio | 1.61 |
Balance Sheet – March 2015
| Current Assets | $3,057,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $3,775,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $11,499,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $36,879,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $26,664,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 507,400,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2015 (estimate) | $2.00 |
| 2014 | $2.03 |
| 2013 | $1.91 |
| 2012 | $1.85 |
| 2011 | $1.72 |
| 2010 | $1.62 |
| 2009 | $1.48 |
| 2008 | $1.46 |
| 2007 | $1.35 |
| 2006 | $1.36 |
| 2005 | $1.23 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2015 (estimate) | $1.95 |
| 2014 | $1.89 |
| 2013 | $1.79 |
| 2012 | $1.69 |
| 2011 | $1.59 |
| 2010 | $1.50 |
Dividend History
Conclusion:
Xcel Energy qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns about the level of debt because the company passed the more conservative Defensive Investor requirements.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.59 in 2011 to an estimated $1.95 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Xcel Energy (XEL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
