American Airlines Group Analysis – 2015 Initial Coverage $AAL

220px-American_Airlines_logo_2013.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – June 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Airlines Group (AAL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Airlines Group Inc. (AAG) is a holding company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries include American Airlines, Inc. (American), US Airways Group, Inc. (US Airways Group) and Envoy Aviation Group Inc. (Envoy). US Airways Group’s principal subsidiary include US Airways, Inc. (US Airways) and its other wholly-owned subsidiaries include Piedmont Airlines, Inc. (Piedmont), and PSA Airlines, Inc. (PSA). AAG’s primary business activity includes the operation of two network carriers through its principal, wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiaries: American and US Airways. The Company’s airlines operate an average of approximately 6,700 flights per day to around 339 destinations in around 54 countries from its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW), Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington, District of Columbia.

To read the rest of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $41.87
MG Value $0.00
MG Opinion Overvalued
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$41.65
PEmg -71.53
Current Ratio 0.99
PB Ratio 10.86

Balance Sheet - March 2015

Current Assets $14,129,000,000
Current Liabilities $14,233,000,000
Total Debt $17,638,000,000
Total Assets $46,754,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,372,000,000
Total Liabilities $43,990,000,000
Outstanding Shares 716,900,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $8.18
2014 $3.93
2013 -$6.54
2012 -$14.98
2011 -$15.82
2010 -$3.78
2009 -$13.36
2008 -$21.85
2007 $4.77
2006 $2.62
2005 -$13.87

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) -$0.59
2014 -$5.79
2013 -$10.73
2012 -$13.21
2011 -$11.55
2010 -$8.38

Dividend History


American Airlines Group is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the short dividend history, and the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings stability over the last five years and the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued due to its current negative EPSmg (normalized earnings).  A key component of value investing is to find companies that are earning funds, rather than losing them.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on American Airlines Group (AAL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.








Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.