Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Raven Industries Inc. (RAVN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Raven Industries, Inc. is a diversified technology company providing a variety of products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction, and military/aerospace markets. The Company markets its products around the world and has its principal operations in the United States. The Company operates in three segments: Applied Technology Division (Applied Technology), Engineered Films Division (Engineered Films) and Aerostar Division (Aerostar). The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells, and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane, and industrial applications. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures products, including balloons, tethered aerostats, and radar processing systems.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$14.13|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$8.28|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||5.77%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$2.86|
Balance Sheet – April 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Raven Industries Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation. As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $1.08 in 2012 to only an estimated $0.97 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.77% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Raven Industries Inc. (RAVN)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.