Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how National Presto Industries (NPK)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): National Presto Industries, Inc. (National Presto) manufactures pressure cookers and canners, ammunition and private label adult incontinence products. The Company operates in three segments, which include Housewares/Small Appliance segment, which designs, markets and distributes housewares and small electrical appliances, including pressure cookers and canners, kitchen electrics, and comfort appliances; Defense segment, manufactures 40 millimeter (mm) ammunition, precision mechanical and electro-mechanical assemblies, medium caliber cartridge cases; performs Load, Assemble and Pack (LAP) operations on ordnance-related products primarily for the United States Government and prime contractors; produces and sells a range of less lethal products and support accessories, and provides training for the use of less lethal products, and Absorbent Products segment, which manufactures and sells private label and branded adult incontinence products.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4Â of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â FAIL
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$68.20|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$39.98|
|Market-implied growth rate||4.26%|
Balance Sheet – MarchÂ 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
National Presto IndustriesÂ qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, the inconsistent dividends, and the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. Â The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. Â As a result, all Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation. Â As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be overvalued after seeingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $7.86 in 2011 to only an estimated $4.70 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.Â As a result, the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value belowÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on National Presto Industries (NPK)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
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