Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Aetna Inc. (AET)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Aetna Inc. is a diversified health care benefits company. The Company offers a range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services. The Company’s operations are conducted in three business segments: Health Care, Group Insurance and Large Case Pensions. The Company’s Health Care segment includes medical, pharmacy benefit management services, dental, behavioral health and vision plans. The Company’s Group Insurance segment’s products consist primarily of Life Insurance Products, Disability Insurance Products and Long-Term Care Insurance Products. The Company’s Large Case Pensions segment manages a variety of retirement products (including pension and annuity products) primarily for tax-qualified pension plans. The Company’s customers include employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, Governmental units, Government-sponsored plans, labor groups and expatriates.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4Â of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$87.24|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$51.14|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.96%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$76.87|
Balance Sheet – MarchÂ 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
Aetna Inc.Â qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio. Â The Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concernsÂ with the level of debt relative to the current assets because the company passes the more conservative Defensive Investor requirements. Â As a result, all valueÂ investorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation. Â As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be fairlyÂ valued afterÂ growingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.03 in 2011 to an estimated $6.02 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated earnings growth supportsÂ the market’s implied estimate of 4.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.Â As a result, the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value belowÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Aetna Inc. (AET)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.