Insurance Stocks

Aetna Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $AET

220px-Aetna_logo_2012Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Aetna Inc. (AET) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Aetna Inc. is a diversified health care benefits company. The Company offers a range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services. The Company’s operations are conducted in three business segments: Health Care, Group Insurance and Large Case Pensions. The Company’s Health Care segment includes medical, pharmacy benefit management services, dental, behavioral health and vision plans. The Company’s Group Insurance segment’s products consist primarily of Life Insurance Products, Disability Insurance Products and Long-Term Care Insurance Products. The Company’s Large Case Pensions segment manages a variety of retirement products (including pension and annuity products) primarily for tax-qualified pension plans. The Company’s customers include employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, Governmental units, Government-sponsored plans, labor groups and expatriates.

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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $110.88
MG Value $140.03
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $87.24
Value Based on 0% Growth $51.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.96%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$76.87
PEmg 18.43
Current Ratio 0.80
PB Ratio 2.60

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $13,391,000,000
Current Liabilities $16,668,000,000
Total Debt $7,846,000,000
Total Assets $55,555,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,522,000,000
Total Liabilities $40,503,000,000
Outstanding Shares 352,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $7.34
2014 $5.68
2013 $5.33
2012 $4.81
2011 $5.22
2010 $4.18
2009 $2.84
2008 $2.83
2007 $3.47
2006 $2.99
2005 $2.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $6.02
2014 $5.25
2013 $4.85
2012 $4.40
2011 $4.03
2010 $3.38

Dividend History

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Aetna Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets because the company passes the more conservative Defensive Investor requirements.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.03 in 2011 to an estimated $6.02 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Aetna Inc. (AET)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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