Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is a provider of automotive aftermarket parts. The company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The company serves its do-it-for-me (commercial) customers and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers through a variety of channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of January 3, 2015, the Company’s operations are comprised of 5,261 stores and 111 distribution branches, which operate in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Carquest, Autopart International and Worldpac.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4Â of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$95.56|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$56.02|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||9.02%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$14.42|
Balance Sheet – MarchÂ 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
Advance Auto PartsÂ Inc.Â does notÂ qualifyÂ for eitherÂ the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. Â The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets. Â As a result, all valueÂ investorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a speculative attitude. Â As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be fairlyÂ valued after growingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.81 in 2011 to an estimated $6.59 for 2015. Â This level of earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 9.02% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, andÂ leadsÂ the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value falling within a margin of safety relative toÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.