Insurance Stocks

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $CINF

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION LOGOBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cincinnati Financial Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company is engaged in the business of property casualty insurance marketed through independent insurance agencies in 39 states. The Company operates through five segments: Commercial lines, Personal lines, Excess and surplus lines, Life insurance and Investments. It operates through its three subsidiaries: The Cincinnati Insurance Company, CSU Producer Resources Inc. and CFC Investment Company. Its market property casualty insurance group includes two of those subsidiaries: The Cincinnati Casualty Company and The Cincinnati Indemnity Company. This group writes a range of business, homeowner and auto policies. Other subsidiaries of The Cincinnati Insurance Company include The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company, which provides life insurance, disability income policies and fixed annuities, and The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company, which offers excess and surplus lines insurance products.

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Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 5/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $55.33
MG Value $55.58
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $42.37
Value Based on 0% Growth $24.84
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.22%
PEmg 18.94
PB Ratio 1.41

Balance Sheet – June 2015

Total Debt $872,000,000
Total Assets $18,888,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $12,391,000,000
Outstanding Shares 165,500,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $3.12
2014 $3.18
2013 $3.12
2012 $2.57
2011 $1.01
2010 $2.31
2009 $2.65
2008 $2.62
2007 $4.97
2006 $5.30
2005 $3.40

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.92
2014 $2.69
2013 $2.41
2012 $2.12
2011 $2.16
2010 $3.02

Dividend History

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Cincinnati Financial Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.16 in 2011 to an estimated $2.92 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 5.22% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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