Psychemedics Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $PMD
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Psychemedics Corporation (PMD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Psychemedics Corporation (Psychemedics) provides testing services for the detection of drugs of abuse through the analysis of hair samples. The Company’s testing methods utilize a technology that digests the hair and releases drugs trapped in the hair without destroying the drugs. The Company’s primary application of its technology is as a testing service that analyzes hair samples for the presence of certain drugs of abuse. The Company performs a custom-designed enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on the liquid supernatant, with confirmation testing by mass spectrometry. Psychemedics provides screening and confirmation by mass spectrometry using various practices for cocaine, marijuana, phencyclidine (PCP), amphetamines, including ecstasy, and opiates, including heroin, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, oxycodone and codeine. The Company also offers a test for alcohol using hair, which measures average alcohol consumption over a period of approximately three months.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4Â of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $11.39 |
| MG Value | $5.07 |
| MG Opinion | Overvalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $8.09 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $4.74 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 5.96% |
| NCAV | -$0.36 |
| PEmg | 20.41 |
| Current Ratio | 2.32 |
| PB Ratio | 5.10 |
Balance Sheet – June 2015
| Current Assets | $8,800,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $3,790,000 |
| Total Debt | $4,150,000 |
| Total Assets | $22,780,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $10,730,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 5,400,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2015 (estimate) | $0.40 |
| 2014 | $0.60 |
| 2013 | $0.72 |
| 2012 | $0.57 |
| 2011 | $0.67 |
| 2010 | $0.50 |
| 2009 | $0.29 |
| 2008 | $0.57 |
| 2007 | $0.85 |
| 2006 | $0.94 |
| 2005 | $0.78 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2015 (estimate) | $0.56 |
| 2014 | $0.63 |
| 2013 | $0.61 |
| 2012 | $0.55 |
| 2011 | $0.55 |
| 2010 | $0.53 |
Dividend History
Free Cash Flow
Conclusion:
Psychemedics Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the company size, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.55 in 2011 to only an estimated $0.56 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Psychemedics Corporation (PMD)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
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