Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Akorn Inc. (AKRX)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Akorn Inc. (Akorn), together with its wholly owned subsidiaries, is a specialty pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets generic and branded prescription pharmaceuticals, as well as animal and over-the-counter (OTC) consumer health products. The Company specializes in sterile and non-sterile dosage forms, including ophthalmics, injectables, oral liquids, otics, topicals, inhalants and nasal sprays. The Company operates in two segments: Prescription Pharmaceuticals, which is engaged in the sale of branded and generic prescription pharmaceuticals, and Consumer Health, which is engaged in the sale of branded and private label consumer and animal health products. The Company operates pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities in Decatur, Illinois; Somerset, New Jersey; Amityville, New York, and Paonta Sahib, Himachal Pradesh, India, as well as a central distribution warehouse in Gurnee, Illinois, and an additional warehousing facility in Amityville, New York.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is aÂ free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$12.33|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$7.23|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||21.40%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||133.23%|
Akorn Inc.Â is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends,Â and the high PEmg and PB ratios. Â The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and the level of debt relative to the net current assets. Â As a result, all Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be overvalued after growingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.11 in 2011 to an estimated $0.85 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 21.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.Â As a result, the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value belowÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Akorn Inc. (AKRX)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$7.50|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Total Current Assets||$494,329,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$134,165,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.80|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$0.85|
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.