Autodesk Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $ADSK

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Autodesk, Inc. (Autodesk) is a design software and services company, offering customers productive business solutions through technology products and services. The Company serves customers in the architecture, engineering and construction; manufacturing, and digital media, consumer and entertainment industries. The Company operates in four segments: Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC), Platform Solutions and Emerging Business (PSEB), Manufacturing (MFG), and Media and Entertainment (M&E). The PSEB, AEC and MFG segments offer a range of services, including consulting, support and training. The M&E segment offers software products to creative professionals, post-production facilities and broadcasters for a variety of applications, including feature films, television programs, commercials, music and corporate videos, interactive game production, Web design and interactive Web streaming.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ADSK – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 0.84
MG Growth Estimate -1.07%
MG Value $5.33
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $12.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth $7.12
Market Implied Growth Rate 28.41%
Current Price $54.70
% of Intrinsic Value 1025.56%

Autodesk Inc. is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the lack of dividends and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.22 in 2012 to an estimated $0.96 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 28.41% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ADSK charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.91
PEmg 65.33
Current Ratio 1.84
PB Ratio 5.70
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $2,341,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,270,300,000
Long-Term Debt $747,400,000
Total Assets $4,775,900,000
Intangible Assets $1,560,900,000
Total Liabilities $2,551,500,000
Outstanding Shares 231,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.96
Jan15 $0.35
Jan14 $1.00
Jan13 $1.07
Jan12 $1.22
Jan11 $0.90
Jan10 $0.25
Jan09 $0.80
Jan08 $1.47
Jan07 $1.19
Jan06 $1.35
Jan05 $0.90
Jan04 $0.52
Jan03 $0.14
Jan02 $0.40
Jan01 $0.40
Jan00 $0.04
Jan99 $0.41
Jan98 $0.23
Jan97 $0.22
Jan96 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.84
Jan15 $0.82
Jan14 $1.00
Jan13 $0.95
Jan12 $0.90
Jan11 $0.80
Jan10 $0.84
Jan09 $1.14
Jan08 $1.23
Jan07 $1.02
Jan06 $0.84
Jan05 $0.55
Jan04 $0.35
Jan03 $0.27
Jan02 $0.32
Jan01 $0.27
Jan00 $0.23


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.







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