Apparel Stocks

Abercrombie & Fitch Company Analysis – Initial Coverage $ANF

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (A&F) is a retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. The Company operates through three business segments: U.S. Stores, International Stores and Direct-to-Consumer. The U.S. Stores segment includes store operations in the United States and Puerto Rico. The International Stores segment includes store operations in Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia and the Middle East. The Direct-to-Consumer segment includes operations directly associated with on-line operations, both United States and international. A&F sells products, including casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters and outerwear; personal care products, and accessories for men, women and kids under the Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids and Hollister brands. It also sells bras, underwear, personal care products, sleepwear and at-home products for girls through Hollister under the Gilly Hicks brand.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ANF

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 0.89
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $12.97
MG Value based on 0% Growth $7.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.38%
Current Price $19.02
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Abercrombie & Fitch Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.75 in 2012 to an estimated $0.89 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ANF Charts - August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.15
PEmg 21.26
Current Ratio 2.39
PB Ratio 1.01
Dividend Yield 4.21%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,046,742,000
Total Current Liabilities $437,503,000
Long-Term Debt $340,103,000
Total Assets $2,364,592,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $1,057,292,000
Outstanding Shares 69,510,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.24
Jan15 $0.71
Jan14 $0.69
Jan13 $2.85
Jan12 $1.61
Jan11 $1.73
Jan10 $0.00
Jan09 $3.05
Jan08 $5.20
Jan07 $4.59
Jan06 $3.66
Jan05 $2.28
Jan04 $2.06
Jan03 $1.98
Jan02 $1.65
Jan01 $1.55
Jan00 $1.39
Jan99 $0.96
Jan98 $0.47
Jan97 $0.27

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.89
Jan15 $1.32
Jan14 $1.54
Jan13 $1.93
Jan12 $1.75
Jan11 $2.19
Jan10 $2.71
Jan09 $3.96
Jan08 $4.13
Jan07 $3.37
Jan06 $2.61
Jan05 $2.03
Jan04 $1.84
Jan03 $1.66
Jan02 $1.40
Jan01 $1.16
Jan00 $0.85

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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