Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Allergan PLC Analysis – August 2015 Update $AGN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Allergan PLC (AGN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AGN – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -0.84
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$12.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$7.12
Market Implied Growth Rate -183.52%
Current Price $300.22
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Allergan PLC does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.84 in 2011 to an estimated loss of $0.84 for 2015.  In addition, the current negative EPSmg does not support a positive valuation, leading the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Allergan PLC (AGN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AGN charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$142.27
PEmg -358.54
Current Ratio 1.37
PB Ratio 1.64
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $10,486,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,649,500,000
Long-Term Debt $41,319,400,000
Total Assets $138,411,100,000
Intangible Assets $124,421,300,000
Total Liabilities $66,342,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 392,600,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.87
Dec14 -$7.42
Dec13 -$5.27
Dec12 $0.76
Dec11 $2.06
Dec10 $1.48
Dec09 $1.96
Dec08 $2.09
Dec07 $1.27
Dec06 -$4.37
Dec05 $1.22
Dec04 $1.26
Dec03 $1.74
Dec02 $1.62
Dec01 $1.07
Dec00 $1.52
Dec99 $1.82
Dec98 $1.22
Dec97 $1.01
Dec96 $0.89
Dec95 $0.56

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.84
Dec14 -$3.35
Dec13 -$0.81
Dec12 $1.50
Dec11 $1.84
Dec10 $1.31
Dec09 $0.96
Dec08 $0.41
Dec07 -$0.21
Dec06 -$0.54
Dec05 $1.38
Dec04 $1.45
Dec03 $1.55
Dec02 $1.45
Dec01 $1.36
Dec00 $1.43
Dec99 $1.29

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Allergan Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $AGN
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/8/14
Allergan Inc. Quarterly Valuation – November 2014 $AGN
19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 7/26/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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