Allergan PLC Analysis – August 2015 Update $AGN
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Allergan PLC (AGN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of AGN – August 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | |||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | |
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | |
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | Fail | |
| Score | |||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | |||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Fail | |
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | |
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Fail | |
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | -0.84 |
| MG Growth Estimate | -4.25% |
| MG Value | $0.00 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | -$12.14 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | -$7.12 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | -183.52% |
| Current Price | $300.22 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | N/A |
Allergan PLC does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.84 in 2011 to an estimated loss of $0.84 for 2015.  In addition, the current negative EPSmg does not support a positive valuation, leading the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Allergan PLC (AGN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$142.27 |
| PEmg | -358.54 |
| Current Ratio | 1.37 |
| PB Ratio | 1.64 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Total Current Assets | $10,486,900,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $7,649,500,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $41,319,400,000 |
| Total Assets | $138,411,100,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $124,421,300,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $66,342,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 392,600,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $5.87 |
| Dec14 | -$7.42 |
| Dec13 | -$5.27 |
| Dec12 | $0.76 |
| Dec11 | $2.06 |
| Dec10 | $1.48 |
| Dec09 | $1.96 |
| Dec08 | $2.09 |
| Dec07 | $1.27 |
| Dec06 | -$4.37 |
| Dec05 | $1.22 |
| Dec04 | $1.26 |
| Dec03 | $1.74 |
| Dec02 | $1.62 |
| Dec01 | $1.07 |
| Dec00 | $1.52 |
| Dec99 | $1.82 |
| Dec98 | $1.22 |
| Dec97 | $1.01 |
| Dec96 | $0.89 |
| Dec95 | $0.56 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | -$0.84 |
| Dec14 | -$3.35 |
| Dec13 | -$0.81 |
| Dec12 | $1.50 |
| Dec11 | $1.84 |
| Dec10 | $1.31 |
| Dec09 | $0.96 |
| Dec08 | $0.41 |
| Dec07 | -$0.21 |
| Dec06 | -$0.54 |
| Dec05 | $1.38 |
| Dec04 | $1.45 |
| Dec03 | $1.55 |
| Dec02 | $1.45 |
| Dec01 | $1.36 |
| Dec00 | $1.43 |
| Dec99 | $1.29 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
