Environmental Stocks

Republic Services Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $RSG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Republic Services Inc. (RSG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Republic Services, Inc. is a provider of services in the domestic non-hazardous solid waste services industry. The Company provides non-hazardous solid waste collection services for commercial, industrial, municipal and residential customers. The Company operates three geographic operating regions that are also its segments: East, Central and West. Each region is organized into several areas and each area contains multiple business units or operating locations. The Company has approximately 340 collection operations, owned or operated 198 transfer stations, 189 active solid waste landfills and 60 recycling centers. It also operates approximately 72 landfill gas and renewable energy projects. The Company operates in 39 states and Puerto Rico. The Company provides collection, transfer, recycling and landfill services in all its regions.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RSG – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.72
MG Growth Estimate 5.12%
MG Value $32.21
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $24.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.45%
Current Price $40.23
% of Intrinsic Value 124.90%

Republic Services Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, and high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.28 in 2011 to an estimated $1.72 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Republic Services Inc. (RSG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

RSG Charts September 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$32.85
Graham Number $31.74
PEmg 23.40
Current Ratio 0.75
PB Ratio 1.82
Dividend Yield 2.78%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,340,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,788,200,000
Long-Term Debt $7,547,500,000
Total Assets $20,666,600,000
Intangible Assets $11,375,100,000
Total Liabilities $12,904,100,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 352,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.03
Dec14 $1.53
Dec13 $1.62
Dec12 $1.55
Dec11 $1.56
Dec10 $1.32
Dec09 $1.30
Dec08 $0.37
Dec07 $1.51
Dec06 $1.39
Dec05 $1.20
Dec04 $1.08
Dec03 $0.78
Dec02 $0.96
Dec01 $0.49
Dec00 $0.84
Dec99 $0.76
Dec98 $0.75

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.72
Dec14 $1.55
Dec13 $1.53
Dec12 $1.39
Dec11 $1.28
Dec10 $1.15
Dec09 $1.10
Dec08 $1.04
Dec07 $1.31
Dec06 $1.17
Dec05 $1.00
Dec04 $0.88
Dec03 $0.78
Dec02 $0.77
Dec01 $0.64
Dec00 $0.63
Dec99 $0.45

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

20 Companies to Research This Week – 9/6/14
Republic Services Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – September 2014 $RSG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Waste Management Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $WM
Stericycle Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $SRCL
Republic Services Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – September 2014 $RSG


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.


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