Food Processing Stocks

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Analysis – September 2015 Update $DPS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc (DPS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. is a brand owner, manufacturer and distributor of non-alcoholic beverages. The Company operates in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Its products comprise flavored (non-cola) carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), including ready-to-drink teas, juices, juice drinks, water and mixers. The Company operates under three segments: Beverage Concentrates, Packaged Beverages and Latin America Beverages. The Company’s brands include Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, Sunkist, Squirt, Penafiel, Crush, Schweppes, RC Cola, Snapple, Hawaiian Punch, Mott’s, Clamato, Aguafiel, Mr & Mrs T, Rose’s and Margaritaville, among others. The Company distributes finished beverages and manufactures beverage concentrates and fountain syrups. The Company caters to bottlers and distributors, and retailers.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DPS – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,524,488,811 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 305.91% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.32 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.48 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.81 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -6.90 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

DPS value Chart September 2015

EPSmg $3.41
MG Growth Estimate 12.21%
MG Value $112.40
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $49.49
MG Value based on 0% Growth $29.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.91%
Current Price $76.19
% of Intrinsic Value 67.79%

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, short dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.88 in 2011 to an estimated $3.41 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc (DPS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

DPS Charts September 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.67
Graham Number $31.96
PEmg 22.32
Current Ratio 0.81
PB Ratio 6.48
Dividend Yield 2.34%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,259,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,563,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,097,000,000
Total Assets $8,267,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,668,000,000
Total Liabilities $6,005,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 192,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.83
Dec14 $3.56
Dec13 $3.05
Dec12 $2.96
Dec11 $2.74
Dec10 $2.17
Dec09 $2.17
Dec08 -$1.23
Dec07 $1.79
Dec06 $2.01

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.41
Dec14 $3.10
Dec13 $2.79
Dec12 $2.36
Dec11 $1.88
Dec10 $1.43
Dec09 $1.02
Dec08 $0.47
Dec07 $1.13
Dec06 $0.67

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

23 Companies to Research This Week – 9/13/14
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $DPS

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.

 

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