Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc (DPS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. is a brand owner, manufacturer and distributor of non-alcoholic beverages. The Company operates in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Its products comprise flavored (non-cola) carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), including ready-to-drink teas, juices, juice drinks, water and mixers. The Company operates under three segments: Beverage Concentrates, Packaged Beverages and Latin America Beverages. The Company’s brands include Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, Sunkist, Squirt, Penafiel, Crush, Schweppes, RC Cola, Snapple, Hawaiian Punch, Mott’s, Clamato, Aguafiel, Mr & Mrs T, Rose’s and Margaritaville, among others. The Company distributes finished beverages and manufactures beverage concentrates and fountain syrups. The Company caters to bottlers and distributors, and retailers.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of DPS – September 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $14,524,488,811 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.81 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 305.91% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 22.32 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 6.48 | Fail | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.81 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -6.90 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $3.41 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 12.21% |
| MG Value | $112.40 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $49.49 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $29.01 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 6.91% |
| Current Price | $76.19 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 67.79% |
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, short dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.88 in 2011 to an estimated $3.41 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc (DPS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$24.67 |
| Graham Number | $31.96 |
| PEmg | 22.32 |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 |
| PB Ratio | 6.48 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.34% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 7 |
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| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Total Current Assets | $1,259,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $1,563,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $2,097,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $8,267,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $5,668,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $6,005,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 192,400,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $3.83 |
| Dec14 | $3.56 |
| Dec13 | $3.05 |
| Dec12 | $2.96 |
| Dec11 | $2.74 |
| Dec10 | $2.17 |
| Dec09 | $2.17 |
| Dec08 | -$1.23 |
| Dec07 | $1.79 |
| Dec06 | $2.01 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $3.41 |
| Dec14 | $3.10 |
| Dec13 | $2.79 |
| Dec12 | $2.36 |
| Dec11 | $1.88 |
| Dec10 | $1.43 |
| Dec09 | $1.02 |
| Dec08 | $0.47 |
| Dec07 | $1.13 |
| Dec06 | $0.67 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| 23 Companies to Research This Week – 9/13/14 | |
| Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $DPS |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.
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