Fossil Group Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $FOSL
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Fossil Group, Inc. is a global designer, marketer and distributor company that specializes in consumer fashion accessories. The Company’s offerings include a line of men’s and women’s fashion watches and jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, sunglasses, soft accessories, and select apparel. The Company operates in four different segments: the North America Wholesale segment, the Europe Wholesale segment, Asia Pacific Wholesale segment and the Direct to Consumer segment. Its products are distributed globally through various distribution channels, including wholesale, retail stores and commercial Websites. The Company sells its products through a diversified distribution network that includes department stores, specialty retail locations, specialty watch and jewelry stores, Company-owned retail and factory outlet stores, mass market stores, and through its FOSSIL Website.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of FOSL – September 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $2,802,588,480 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 3.58 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 276.94% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 9.91 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 3.40 | Pass | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 3.58 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 0.69 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $5.86 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 11.31% |
| MG Value | $182.38 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $84.99 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $49.82 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 0.71% |
| Current Price | $58.09 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 31.85% |
Fossil Group Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and for the Enterprising Investor.  Both investor types are only concerned by the lack of dividend. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.34 in 2011 to an estimated $5.86 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.71% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $2.87 |
| Graham Number | $43.21 |
| PEmg | 9.91 |
| Current Ratio | 3.58 |
| PB Ratio | 3.40 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Total Current Assets | $1,366,339,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $381,910,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $674,445,000 |
| Total Assets | $2,059,441,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $363,942,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $1,226,495,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 48,744,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $4.81 |
| Dec14 | $7.10 |
| Dec13 | $6.56 |
| Dec12 | $5.59 |
| Dec11 | $4.61 |
| Dec10 | $3.77 |
| Dec09 | $2.07 |
| Dec08 | $2.02 |
| Dec07 | $1.75 |
| Dec06 | $1.13 |
| Dec05 | $1.07 |
| Dec04 | $1.22 |
| Dec03 | $0.93 |
| Dec02 | $0.81 |
| Dec01 | $0.62 |
| Dec00 | $0.76 |
| Dec99 | $0.69 |
| Dec98 | $0.44 |
| Dec97 | $0.18 |
| Dec96 | $0.20 |
| Dec95 | $0.12 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $5.86 |
| Dec14 | $6.10 |
| Dec13 | $5.24 |
| Dec12 | $4.26 |
| Dec11 | $3.34 |
| Dec10 | $2.52 |
| Dec09 | $1.80 |
| Dec08 | $1.59 |
| Dec07 | $1.32 |
| Dec06 | $1.08 |
| Dec05 | $1.02 |
| Dec04 | $0.95 |
| Dec03 | $0.80 |
| Dec02 | $0.71 |
| Dec01 | $0.62 |
| Dec00 | $0.56 |
| Dec99 | $0.42 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
