Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – AugustÂ 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CF Industries Holdings (CF)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is the manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizer and other nitrogen products. The Companyâ€™s nitrogen fertilizer products include ammonia, granular urea and urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN). The Companyâ€™s other nitrogen products include ammonium nitrate (AN), diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor and aqua ammonia. The Companyâ€™s customers include cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors and industrial users. It operates seven nitrogen fertilizer production facilities in North America. The Company owns four production facilities in the Central United States, one in Medicine Hat, Alberta, Canada and one in Courtright, Ontario, Canada. It also has a 75.3% interest in Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNCLP) and its subsidiary, TNLP, which owns a nitrogen fertilizer facility in Verdigris, Oklahoma.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CF – September 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$10,777,257,347||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.81||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||265.73%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||9.74||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.65||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.81||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||7.49||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||13.95%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$68.81|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$40.34|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||0.62%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||26.77%|
CF Industries Holdings Inc.Â qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and for the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets. Â As a result, all value investorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be undervalued after growingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.46 in 2011 to an estimated $4.75 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpacesÂ the market’s implied estimate of 0.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.Â As a result, the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value aboveÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$23.36|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||5|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Total Current Assets||$1,366,400,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$753,500,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||236,100,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.77|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.75|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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