Retail Stocks

Urban Outfitters Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $URBN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Urban Outfitters, Inc. (Urban Outfitters) is a lifestyle retail company. The Company operates through two business segments: Retail and Wholesale. The Retail segment consists of the Company’s Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie Group, Free People and Terrain brands, whose merchandise is sold directly to the Company’s customers through retail stores, Websites, mobile applications, catalogs and customer contact centers. The Urban Outfitters targets young adults aged 18 to 28. The Anthropologie Group consists of the Anthropologie and Bhldn brands. Free People retail stores offer private label branded merchandise targeted to young contemporary women aged 25 to 30. Terrain brand is designed for women and men interested in a creative, outdoor living and gardening. The Wholesale segment consists of the Free People wholesale division that primarily designs, develops and markets young women’s contemporary casual apparel.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of URBN

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,762,619,866 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.38 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 90.86% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.60 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.16 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.38 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.24 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

URBN value chart October 2015

EPSmg $1.71
MG Growth Estimate 4.79%
MG Value $30.97
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $24.83
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.55%
Current Price $30.14
% of Intrinsic Value 97.31%

Urban Outfitters Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.30 in 2012 to an estimated $1.71 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.55% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

URBN charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.27
Graham Number $19.82
PEmg 17.60
Current Ratio 2.38
PB Ratio 3.16
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $839,463,000
Total Current Liabilities $353,277,000
Long-Term Debt $115,000,000
Total Assets $1,907,333,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $676,085,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 129,081,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.77
Jan15 $1.68
Jan14 $1.89
Jan13 $1.62
Jan12 $1.19
Jan11 $1.60
Jan10 $1.28
Jan09 $1.17
Jan08 $0.94
Jan07 $0.69
Jan06 $0.77
Jan05 $0.54
Jan04 $0.30
Jan03 $0.18
Jan02 $0.11
Jan01 $0.08
Jan00 $0.13
Jan99 $0.11
Jan98 $0.10
Jan97 $0.09
Jan96 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.71
Jan15 $1.65
Jan14 $1.60
Jan13 $1.43
Jan12 $1.30
Jan11 $1.28
Jan10 $1.07
Jan09 $0.92
Jan08 $0.74
Jan07 $0.60
Jan06 $0.49
Jan05 $0.31
Jan04 $0.19
Jan03 $0.13
Jan02 $0.10
Jan01 $0.10
Jan00 $0.11

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Companies of the Retail Industry – August 2015
Urban Outfitters Analysis – July 2015 Update $URBN
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
Urban Outfitters Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $URBN
32 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/6/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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