CME Group Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $CME
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CME Group Inc. (CME) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CME Group Inc.is the holding company for Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., CBOT, New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX), Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) and their respective subsidiaries, as well as CME Clearing Europe Limited (CMECE) and CME Europe Limited (CME Europe). The Company also clear futures, options on futures and swaps contracts through its two clearing organizations: CME Clearing, which is a division of CME, and CMECE. The Company offers its customers the opportunity to trade futures contracts and options on futures contracts on a range of products, including those -based on interest rates, equities, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy and metals. It also clear swaps contracts on a range of products, including those -based on interest rates, credit default, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy and metals. Its exchange consists of designated contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CME – October 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $30,073,099,955 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.04 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 27.00% | Fail | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 26.47 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.42 | Pass | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.04 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 1.38 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Fail | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $3.38 |
| MG Growth Estimate | -0.87% |
| MG Value | $22.85 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $49.05 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $28.75 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 8.99% |
| Current Price | $89.55 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 391.92% |
CME Group Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.59 in 2011 to an estimated $3.58 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.99% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on CME Group Inc. (CME)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$24.72 |
| Graham Number | $71.07 |
| PEmg | 26.47 |
| Current Ratio | 1.04 |
| PB Ratio | 1.42 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 5 |
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Total Current Assets | $44,055,100,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $42,432,600,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $2,241,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $73,663,100,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $27,331,900,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $52,404,300,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 337,796,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $3.55 |
| Dec14 | $3.35 |
| Dec13 | $2.92 |
| Dec12 | $2.70 |
| Dec11 | $5.43 |
| Dec10 | $2.86 |
| Dec09 | $2.48 |
| Dec08 | $2.43 |
| Dec07 | $2.99 |
| Dec06 | $2.32 |
| Dec05 | $1.76 |
| Dec04 | $1.28 |
| Dec03 | $0.72 |
| Dec02 | $0.63 |
| Dec01 | $0.51 |
| Dec00 | -$0.04 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $3.38 |
| Dec14 | $3.35 |
| Dec13 | $3.33 |
| Dec12 | $3.41 |
| Dec11 | $3.59 |
| Dec10 | $2.65 |
| Dec09 | $2.50 |
| Dec08 | $2.39 |
| Dec07 | $2.18 |
| Dec06 | $1.64 |
| Dec05 | $1.19 |
| Dec04 | $0.81 |
| Dec03 | $0.50 |
| Dec02 | $0.34 |
| Dec01 | $0.16 |
| Dec00 | -$0.01 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| 14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 10/11/14 | |
| CME Group Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $CME |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
