Tractor Supply Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $TSCO
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tractor Supply Company is an operator of rural lifestyle retail stores in the United States. The Company focuses on supplying the lifestyle needs of recreational farmers and ranchers, as well as tradesmen and small businesses. As of December 27, 2014, it operated 1,382 retail stores in 49 states under the names Tractor Supply Company, Del’s Feed & Farm Supply and HomeTown Pet. It also operates a Website under the name TractorSupply.com. It offers a portfolio of products, which include equine, livestock, pet and small animal products; hardware, truck, towing and tool products; seasonal products, including lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear, and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. Its products are offered under various brands, which include 4health, Blue Mountain, Countyline, Equistages, Groundwork, Huskee, JobSmart, Dumor, C.E. Schmidt, Paws & Claws, Producer’s Pride and Redstone, among others.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of TSCO – October 2015
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $12,069,204,373 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 2.05 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 334.53% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 38.62 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 9.15 | Fail | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 2.05 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 0.25 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $2.33 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 15.00% |
| MG Value | $89.85 |
| Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $33.84 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $19.84 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 15.06% |
| Current Price | $90.13 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 100.32% |
Tractor Supply Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the short dividend history and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.08 in 2011 to an estimated $2.33 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 15.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $3.46 |
| Graham Number | $23.16 |
| PEmg | 38.62 |
| Current Ratio | 2.05 |
| PB Ratio | 9.15 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 6 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Total Current Assets | $1,573,364,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $765,722,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $200,746,000 |
| Total Assets | $2,440,586,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $10,258,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $1,103,326,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 135,830,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.42 |
| Dec14 | $2.66 |
| Dec13 | $2.32 |
| Dec12 | $1.90 |
| Dec11 | $1.51 |
| Dec10 | $1.13 |
| Dec09 | $0.82 |
| Dec08 | $0.55 |
| Dec07 | $0.60 |
| Dec06 | $0.56 |
| Dec05 | $0.52 |
| Dec04 | $0.39 |
| Dec03 | $0.35 |
| Dec02 | $0.24 |
| Dec01 | $0.18 |
| Dec00 | $0.12 |
| Dec99 | $0.13 |
| Dec98 | $0.11 |
| Dec97 | $0.08 |
| Dec96 | $0.09 |
| Dec95 | $0.09 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.33 |
| Dec14 | $2.16 |
| Dec13 | $1.79 |
| Dec12 | $1.40 |
| Dec11 | $1.08 |
| Dec10 | $0.82 |
| Dec09 | $0.65 |
| Dec08 | $0.55 |
| Dec07 | $0.53 |
| Dec06 | $0.47 |
| Dec05 | $0.39 |
| Dec04 | $0.30 |
| Dec03 | $0.24 |
| Dec02 | $0.18 |
| Dec01 | $0.14 |
| Dec00 | $0.11 |
| Dec99 | $0.11 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| The Best Companies of the Retail Industry – August 2015 | |
| The 16 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/1/15 | |
| Tractor Supply Company Analysis – Initial Coverage $TSCO |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
