Retail Stocks

Aaron’s Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $AAN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Aaron’s Inc. (AAN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Aaron’s, Inc. (Aaron’s) is a specialty retailer of furniture, consumer electronics, computers, appliances and household accessories. The Company operates through five segments: The Aaron’s Sales and Lease Ownership segment, which offers furniture, electronics, appliances and computers to consumers on a monthly payment basis; Progressive, which is a virtual lease-to-own company that provides lease-purchase solutions; The HomeSmart segment, which offers furniture, electronics, appliances and computers to consumers on a weekly payment basis; Franchise, which awards franchises and supports franchisees of its sales and lease ownership concept, and Manufacturing segment, which manufactures upholstered furniture and bedding for use by Company-operated and franchised stores. Its products include flat-screen televisions, computers, tablets, living room, dining room and bedroom furniture, among others. Its brands include Samsung, Frigidaire, Hewlett-Packard, LG, Maytag, RCA and JVC.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAN – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,486,532,265 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.30 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 56.49% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.93 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.90 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.30 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.70 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AAN value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $1.72
MG Growth Estimate 4.14%
MG Value $28.87
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $24.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.71%
Current Price $34.26
% of Intrinsic Value 118.69%

Aaron’s Inc. qualifies for both the Enterprising Investor and the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.35 in 2011 to an estimated $1.72 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.71% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Aaron’s Inc. (AAN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AAN Charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.86
Graham Number $29.70
PEmg 19.93
Current Ratio 2.30
PB Ratio 1.90
Dividend Yield 0.26%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 10

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,246,116,000
Total Current Liabilities $542,760,000
Long-Term Debt $494,858,000
Total Assets $2,354,707,000
Intangible Assets $818,140,000
Total Liabilities $1,037,618,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 72,965,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.16
Dec14 $1.08
Dec13 $1.58
Dec12 $2.25
Dec11 $1.43
Dec10 $1.44
Dec09 $1.37
Dec08 $1.11
Dec07 $0.97
Dec06 $1.00
Dec05 $0.76
Dec04 $0.69
Dec03 $0.49
Dec02 $0.38
Dec01 $0.18
Dec00 $0.41
Dec99 $0.37
Dec98 $0.31
Dec97 $0.28
Dec96 $0.23
Dec95 $0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.72
Dec14 $1.52
Dec13 $1.70
Dec12 $1.68
Dec11 $1.35
Dec10 $1.26
Dec09 $1.13
Dec08 $0.98
Dec07 $0.87
Dec06 $0.76
Dec05 $0.60
Dec04 $0.49
Dec03 $0.38
Dec02 $0.33
Dec01 $0.30
Dec00 $0.35
Dec99 $0.30

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Aaron’s Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAN

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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