Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – SeptemberÂ 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at howÂ Allstate Corporation (ALL)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): The Allstate Corporation is a holding company for Allstate Insurance Company. The Company and its subsidiaries, including Allstate Insurance Company, Allstate Life Insurance Company and other subsidiaries (collectively, Allstate) are engaged in the property-liability insurance and life insurance business. It offers its products in the United States and Canada. Allstate operates in four business segments: Allstate Protection, Discontinued Lines and Coverages, Allstate Financial, and Corporate and Other. The principal geographic markets for its auto, homeowners, and other personal property and casualty products are in the United States. Through its subsidiaries, it sells various types of personal property and casualty insurance products in around 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. It sells private passenger auto and homeowners insurance through agencies, contact centers and Internet. It sells these products under Allstate, Esurance and Encompass brand names.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is aÂ free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$25,008,347,541||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||24.86%||Fail|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||12.78||Pass|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.21||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$70.88|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$41.55|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||2.14%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||33.22%|
Allstate CorporationÂ qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. Â The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.Â As a result, all Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be undervalued after growingÂ itsÂ EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.38 in 2011 to an estimated $4.89 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpacesÂ the market’s implied estimate of 2.14% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.Â As a result, the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value aboveÂ the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Allstate Corporation (ALL)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||5|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||412,600,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.59|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.89|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.