The Estee Lauder Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $EL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Estee Lauder Company (EL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Estee Lauder Companies Inc., is a manufacturer and marketer of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. The Company’s products are sold in over 150 countries and territories under a number of brand names, including Estee Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Origins, Le Labo, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer and Aveda. It is also the global licensee for fragrances and/or cosmetics sold under brand names, such as Tommy Hilfiger, Donna Karan, Michael Kors, Tom Ford and Coach. It sells its products principally through limited distribution channels to complement the images associated with its brands. These channels include points of sale consisting of upscale department stores, specialty retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies and prestige salons and spas. In addition, its products are sold in freestanding Company-operated stores, its own and authorized retailer Websites, stores on cruise ships, direct response television (DRTV), in-flight and duty-free shops.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EL – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $30,795,506,291 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.09 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 217.31% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.79 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.75 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.09 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.69 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EL value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $2.89
MG Growth Estimate 12.47%
MG Value $96.51
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $41.84
MG Value based on 0% Growth $24.53
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.15%
Current Price $83.08
% of Intrinsic Value 86.09%

The Estee Lauder Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.58 in 2012 to an estimated $2.89 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 10.15% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on The Estee Lauder Company (EL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

EL Charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.33
Graham Number $25.92
PEmg 28.79
Current Ratio 2.09
PB Ratio 8.75
Dividend Yield 1.11%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $4,468,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,135,600,000
Long-Term Debt $1,607,500,000
Total Assets $8,239,200,000
Intangible Assets $1,471,400,000
Total Liabilities $4,596,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 383,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.10
Jun15 $2.82
Jun14 $3.06
Jun13 $2.58
Jun12 $2.16
Jun11 $1.74
Jun10 $1.19
Jun09 $0.55
Jun08 $1.20
Jun07 $1.08
Jun06 $0.56
Jun05 $0.89
Jun04 $0.74
Jun03 $0.63
Jun02 $0.35
Jun01 $0.58
Jun00 $0.60
Jun99 $0.52
Jun98 $0.45
Jun97 $0.37
Jun96 $0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.89
Jun15 $2.68
Jun14 $2.45
Jun13 $1.98
Jun12 $1.58
Jun11 $1.24
Jun10 $0.96
Jun09 $0.85
Jun08 $0.97
Jun07 $0.83
Jun06 $0.68
Jun05 $0.71
Jun04 $0.60
Jun03 $0.53
Jun02 $0.49
Jun01 $0.54
Jun00 $0.49

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The 8 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/8/15
Estee Lauder Companies Analysis – August 2015 Update $EL
Estee Lauder Companies Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $EL
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Estee-Lauder Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $EL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $IFF
Estee Lauder Companies Analysis – August 2015 Update $EL
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $IFF
Estee Lauder Companies Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $EL
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $IFF
Proctor & Gamble Annual Valuation – 2015 $PG
Kimberly Clark Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $KMB
Estee-Lauder Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $EL
Avon Products Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $AVP
Colgate-Palmolive Annual Valuation – 2014 $CL


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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