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Food Processing Stocks

Archer Daniels Midland Valuation – November 2015 Update $ADM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities and manufactures protein meal, vegetable oil, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol, and other value-added food and feed ingredients. The Company’s segments include Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Agricultural Services and Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients. The Corn Processing segment is engaged in corn wet milling and dry milling activities. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its United States grain elevator , global transportation network and port operations to buy, store, clean and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley, and resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Wild Flavors’ products include flavors, colors, sweeteners and health ingredients, as well as ready-to-market concepts and complete solutions.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ADM – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $26,387,078,072 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.76 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 3.71% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.50 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.44 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.76 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.61 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ADM value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $2.75
MG Growth Estimate -1.05%
MG Value $17.63
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.91
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.40
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.50%
Current Price $42.66
% of Intrinsic Value 241.97%

Archer Daniels Midland qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio and the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, while the Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.96 in 2011 to an estimated $2.75 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.5% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ADM Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.90
Graham Number $44.88
PEmg 15.50
Current Ratio 1.76
PB Ratio 1.44
Dividend Yield 2.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $22,588,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $12,859,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,965,000,000
Total Assets $40,568,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,256,000,000
Total Liabilities $22,024,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 627,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.94
Dec14 $3.43
Dec13 $2.02
Jun12 $1.84
Jun11 $3.13
Jun10 $3.00
Jun09 $2.62
Jun08 $2.79
Jun07 $3.30
Jun06 $2.00
Jun05 $1.59
Jun04 $0.76
Jun03 $0.70
Jun02 $0.78
Jun01 $0.55
Jun00 $0.45
Jun99 $0.35
Jun98 $0.59
Jun97 $0.54
Jun96 $0.99
Jun95 $0.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.75
Dec14 $2.67
Dec13 $2.36
Jun12 $2.58
Jun11 $2.96
Jun10 $2.83
Jun09 $2.65
Jun08 $2.47
Jun07 $2.10
Jun06 $1.39
Jun05 $1.01
Jun04 $0.70
Jun03 $0.64
Jun02 $0.58
Jun01 $0.49
Jun00 $0.50
Jun99 $0.51

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Archer Daniels Midland Company Analysis – 2015 Update $ADM
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Archer Daniels Midland Co. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $ADM
Archer Daniels Midland Company Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $ADM
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 10/25/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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