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Micron Technology Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $MU

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Micron Technology Inc. (MU) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Micron Technology, Inc. is a global provider of semiconductor devices. Through the Company’s global operations, it manufactures and markets a full range of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), NAND Flash and NOR Flash memory, as well as other memory technologies, packaging solutions and semiconductor systems for use in leading-edge computing, consumer, networking, automotive, industrial, embedded and mobile products. The Company operates in four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU), which includes DRAM and NOR Flash products; Mobile Business Unit (MBU), which includes DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR Flash products; Storage Business Unit (SBU), which includes NAND Flash components and Solid-State Drives (SSDs), cloud and removable storage markets. SBU also includes NAND Flash products, and Embedded Business Unit (EBU), which includes DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR Flash products.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MU – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $16,964,902,766 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.20 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -216.22% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 10.67 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.43 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.20 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.33 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MU value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $1.46
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $56.39
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $21.24
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.45
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.09%
Current Price $15.63
% of Intrinsic Value 27.72%

Micron Technology Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the lack of dividends.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets, the lack of dividends, and the insufficient earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $0.38 in 2012 to an estimated gain of $1.46 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Micron Technology Inc. (MU)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MU Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.89
Graham Number $12.88
PEmg 10.67
Current Ratio 2.20
PB Ratio 1.43
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $8,596,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,905,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,252,000,000
Total Assets $24,143,000,000
Intangible Assets $449,000,000
Total Liabilities $11,841,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,124,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.65
Aug15 $2.47
Aug14 $2.54
Aug13 $1.13
Aug12 -$1.04
Aug11 $0.17
Aug10 $1.85
Aug09 -$2.35
Aug08 -$2.10
Aug07 -$0.42
Aug06 $0.57
Aug05 $0.29
Aug04 $0.24
Aug03 -$2.11
Aug02 -$1.51
Aug01 -$1.05
Aug00 $2.56
Aug99 -$0.13
Aug98 -$0.58
Aug97 $0.72
Aug96 $1.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.46
Aug15 $1.60
Aug14 $1.09
Aug13 $0.22
Aug12 -$0.38
Aug11 -$0.23
Aug10 -$0.45
Aug09 -$1.33
Aug08 -$0.64
Aug07 -$0.04
Aug06 -$0.07
Aug05 -$0.53
Aug04 -$0.75
Aug03 -$0.98
Aug02 -$0.33
Aug01 $0.28
Aug00 $0.89

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14
Micron Technology Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $MU

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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