E I du Pont de Nemours & Co Valuation – November 2015 Update $DD

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how E I du Pont de Nemours & Co (DD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) is a science and technology-based company. The Company’s subsidiaries and affiliates conduct manufacturing, seed production or selling activities and distribute products manufactured by the Company. The Company’s segments include Agriculture, Electronics & Communications, Industrial Biosciences, Nutrition & Health, Performance Materials and Safety & Protection. The Company’s other business operations include various embryonic businesses, such as pre-commercial programs and non-aligned businesses. DuPont conducts research and development (R&D) programs across multiple fields, including biology, chemistry, engineering and materials science. The Company’s brands include Pioneer, DuPont Teflon, Capstone, Opteon yf, Isceon, Suva, Vazo, Vertrel, Virkon, Viton, Zyron and Bynel coextrudable adhesive resins, Elvax EVA resins, DuPont Kevlar, Nomex and Tyvek.


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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DD – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $58,245,735,747 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 32.16% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.73 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.40 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.04 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.94 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

DD value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $3.56
MG Growth Estimate 2.83%
MG Value $50.38
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $51.59
MG Value based on 0% Growth $30.24
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.11%
Current Price $66.63
% of Intrinsic Value 132.26%

E I du Pont de Nemours & Co qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.99 in 2011 to an estimated $3.56 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on E I du Pont de Nemours & Co (DD)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

DD Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.74
Graham Number $26.45
PEmg 18.73
Current Ratio 2.04
PB Ratio 5.40
Dividend Yield 2.72%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $17,046,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $8,354,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,155,000,000
Total Assets $40,302,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,463,000,000
Total Liabilities $29,295,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 891,286,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.53
Dec14 $3.92
Dec13 $5.18
Dec12 $2.91
Dec11 $3.68
Dec10 $3.28
Dec09 $1.92
Dec08 $2.20
Dec07 $3.22
Dec06 $3.38
Dec05 $2.07
Dec04 $1.77
Dec03 $0.96
Dec02 -$1.12
Dec01 $4.16
Dec00 $2.19
Dec99 $6.99
Dec98 $3.90
Dec97 $2.08
Dec96 $3.18
Dec95 $2.81

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.56
Dec14 $3.98
Dec13 $3.80
Dec12 $3.01
Dec11 $2.99
Dec10 $2.70
Dec09 $2.46
Dec08 $2.66
Dec07 $2.69
Dec06 $2.09
Dec05 $1.48
Dec04 $1.32
Dec03 $1.61
Dec02 $2.37
Dec01 $4.03
Dec00 $3.86
Dec99 $4.40

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Companies of the Chemicals Industry – August 2015
The 20 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/15/15
E I Du Pont de Nemours & Company Analysis – August 2015 Update $DD
5 Undervalued Dow Stocks to Research – August 2015
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

E I Du Pont de Nemours & Company Analysis – August 2015 Update $DD
E. I. Du Pont De Nemours and Company Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $DD
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Illinois Tool Works Analysis – July 2015 Update $ITW
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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