Steel Stocks

Allegheny Technologies Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $ATI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is a specialty materials and components producer. The Company’s standard products include specialty stainless sheet, stainless steel sheet and stainless steel plate. It operates through two business segments: High Performance Materials & Components and Flat Rolled Products. It’s High Performance Materials & Components segment produces, converts and distributes high performance materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, zirconium and related alloys. It’s Flat Rolled Products segment produces, converts and distributes stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, specialty alloys, and titanium and titanium-based alloys.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ATI – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,410,830,995 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.85 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -103.07% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -219.48 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.57 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.85 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.10 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ATI value Chart November 2015

EPSmg -$0.06
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$0.84
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$0.49
Market Implied Growth Rate -113.99%
Current Price $12.73
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Allegheny Technologies Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the small size, the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has concerns with the level of debt in relation to the net current assets as well as the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.15 in 2011 to an estimated loss of $0.06 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support a positive valuation.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ATI Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.44
Graham Number #NUM!
PEmg -219.48
Current Ratio 2.85
PB Ratio 0.57
Dividend Yield 5.66%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $2,098,600,000
Total Current Liabilities $737,100,000
Long-Term Debt $1,501,600,000
Total Assets $6,161,100,000
Intangible Assets $780,200,000
Total Liabilities $3,755,400,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 107,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.98
Dec14 -$0.03
Dec13 $1.44
Dec12 $1.43
Dec11 $1.97
Dec10 $0.72
Dec09 $0.32
Dec08 $5.67
Dec07 $7.26
Dec06 $5.61
Dec05 $3.59
Dec04 $0.22
Dec03 -$3.89
Dec02 -$0.82
Dec01 -$0.31
Dec00 $1.60
Dec99 $3.13
Dec98 $2.43
Dec97 $3.73
Dec96 $2.40
Dec95 $0.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.06
Dec14 $0.97
Dec13 $1.37
Dec12 $1.57
Dec11 $2.15
Dec10 $2.80
Dec09 $4.06
Dec08 $5.44
Dec07 $4.40
Dec06 $2.30
Dec05 $0.35
Dec04 -$1.06
Dec03 -$1.16
Dec02 $0.54
Dec01 $1.52
Dec00 $2.51
Dec99 $2.76

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/22/14
Allegheny Technologies Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $ATI
ModernGraham Valuation: Allegheny Technologies (ATI)

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Nucor Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $NUE
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Nucor Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $NUE
Nucor Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $NUE
United States Steel Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $X
Nucor Corporation Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $NUE
Allegheny Technologies Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $ATI
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $CLF

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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