Consol Energy Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CNX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Consol Energy Inc (CNX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CONSOL Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. The Company operates through two divisions: oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), and coal mining. The E&P division is focused on natural gas and liquids activities, including production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties in the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee). The coal division is focused on the extraction and preparation of coal, in the Appalachian Basin. It holds two joint ventures, one with Noble Energy, Inc. in the Marcellus Shale and one with a subsidiary of Hess Corporation in the Utica Shale. Its gas operations include Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale, Coalbed Methane and Other Gas properties. Its coal mining division includes Pennsylvania (PA) operations coal segment, Virginia (VA) operations coal segment and other coal segment. As of December 31, 2014, the Company has a total production of 645,792 million cubic feet per day (Mcfe per day).


To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CNX – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,757,861,306 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.52 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -74.21% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.86 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.39 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.52 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CNX value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $0.50
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.27
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.68%
Current Price $7.95
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Consol Energy Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the small size, low current ratio, and the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor has concerns with the level of debt in relation to the net current assets as well as the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.35 in 2011 to an estimated $0.50 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Consol Energy Inc (CNX)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CNX Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.90
Graham Number #NUM!
PEmg 15.86
Current Ratio 0.52
PB Ratio 0.39
Dividend Yield 2.50%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0



Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $970,461,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,867,703,000
Long-Term Debt $2,776,678,000
Total Assets $11,185,370,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $6,452,373,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 229,352,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$2.01
Dec14 $0.70
Dec13 $2.87
Dec12 $1.70
Dec11 $2.76
Dec10 $1.60
Dec09 $2.95
Dec08 $2.40
Dec07 $1.45
Dec06 $2.20
Dec05 $3.13
Dec04 $1.09
Dec03 -$0.05
Dec02 $0.08
Jun01 $1.17
Jun00 $0.68
Jun99 $0.31
Dec98 $0.87
Dec97 $0.85

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.50
Dec14 $1.81
Dec13 $2.37
Dec12 $2.18
Dec11 $2.35
Dec10 $2.14
Dec09 $2.42
Dec08 $2.12
Dec07 $1.84
Dec06 $1.78
Dec05 $1.41
Dec04 $0.57
Dec03 $0.35
Dec02 $0.57
Jun01 $0.80
Jun00 $0.59
Jun99 $0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

22 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/29/14
Consol Energy Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $CNX

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Silver Wheaton Corporation Valuation – October 2015 Update $SLW
Natural Resource Partners LP Analysis – October 2015 Update $NRP
Peabody Energy Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $BTU
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $FCX
Alliance Resource Partners LP Analysis – Initial Coverage $ARLP
Goldcorp Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $GG
Silver Wheaton Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $SLW
Newmont Mining Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $NEM
Alcoa Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $AA
Consol Energy Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $CNX


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.