International Paper Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $IP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor - November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how International Paper Co (IP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): International Paper Company is a paper and packaging company with primary markets and manufacturing operations in North America, Europe, Latin America, Russia, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. The Company operates in three segments: Industrial Packaging, Printing Papers and Consumer Packaging. Industrial Packaging segment’s products include linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft. Printing Papers segment products include uncoated papers, which engage in the business of producing papers for use in copiers, desktop and laser printers and pulp, which manufactures printing, writing and specialty papers, tissue products and filtration products. Consumer Packaging’s coated paperboard business produces coated paperboard for packaging and commercial printing end uses. Its foodservice business produces cups, lids, food containers and plates. Its brands include Hammermill, Springhill, Accent, Ballet, Rey, Pol, Everest, Fortress and Carolina.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of IP – December 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $16,081,176,172 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.34 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 285.25% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.75 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.69 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.34 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.77 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

IP value Chart December 2015

EPSmg $2.29
MG Growth Estimate 8.10%
MG Value $56.59
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.22
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.13%
Current Price $38.39
% of Intrinsic Value 67.84%

International Paper Co does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability in the last ten years, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.49 in 2011 to an estimated $2.29 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.13% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on International Paper Co (IP)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

IP Charts December 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$35.64
Graham Number $25.01
PEmg 16.75
Current Ratio 1.34
PB Ratio 3.69
Dividend Yield 4.17%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $12,754,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $9,547,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,887,000,000
Total Assets $31,981,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,881,000,000
Total Liabilities $27,632,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 417,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.65
Dec14 $1.29
Dec13 $3.11
Dec12 $1.80
Dec11 $3.03
Dec10 $1.48
Dec09 $1.55
Dec08 -$3.05
Dec07 $2.70
Dec06 $2.18
Dec05 $2.21
Dec04 -$0.07
Dec03 $0.63
Dec02 -$1.83
Dec01 -$2.50
Dec00 $0.32
Dec99 $0.44
Dec98 $0.60
Dec97 -$0.20
Dec96 $1.04
Dec95 $4.50

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.29
Dec14 $2.12
Dec13 $2.42
Dec12 $1.71
Dec11 $1.49
Dec10 $0.80
Dec09 $0.68
Dec08 $0.43
Dec07 $1.96
Dec06 $1.26
Dec05 $0.43
Dec04 -$0.53
Dec03 -$0.71
Dec02 -$1.11
Dec01 -$0.59
Dec00 $0.39
Dec99 $0.71

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Undervalued Companies for Enterprising Dividend Investors – November 2015
10 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Dividend Stock Investor – October 2015
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/4/15
International Paper Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $IP
10 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Dividend Stock Investor – August 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Bemis Company Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $BMS
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International Paper Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $IP
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MeadWestvaco Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Quarterly Update $MWV
International Paper Stock Analysis – May 2015 Quarterly Update $IP
Sealed Air Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $SEE
Bemis Company Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $BMS
MeadWestvaco Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $MWV


The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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