Amphenol Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $APH

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Amphenol Corporation (APH) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Amphenol Corporation (Amphenol) is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems, antennas, sensors and sensor- based products, and coaxial and specialty cable. The Company operates through two segments: Interconnect Products and Assemblies, and Cable Products and Solutions. The Interconnect Products and Assemblies segment primarily designs, manufacturers and markets a range of connector and connector systems, value-add products and other products, including antennas and sensors, used in a range of applications in a diverse set of end markets. The Cable Products and Solutions segment primarily designs, manufacturers and markets cable, value-added products and components for use primarily in the broadband communications and information technology markets, as well as certain applications in other markets.


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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of APH – January 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $16,081,420,704 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.57 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 130.69% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.11 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.09 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.57 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.03 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

APH value Chart January 2016

EPSmg $2.10
MG Growth Estimate 9.44%
MG Value $57.49
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $30.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.84
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.80%
Current Price $50.60
% of Intrinsic Value 88.01%

Amphenol Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.29 in 2011 to an estimated $2.10 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Amphenol Corporation (APH)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

APH Charts January 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.52
Graham Number $23.32
PEmg 24.11
Current Ratio 3.57
PB Ratio 5.09
Dividend Yield 1.02%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $3,862,300,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,081,300,000
Long-Term Debt $2,853,000,000
Total Assets $7,485,600,000
Intangible Assets $2,934,000,000
Total Liabilities $4,342,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 315,887,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.37
Dec14 $2.21
Dec13 $1.96
Dec12 $1.70
Dec11 $1.53
Dec10 $1.41
Dec09 $0.92
Dec08 $1.17
Dec07 $0.97
Dec06 $0.70
Dec05 $0.57
Dec04 $0.46
Dec03 $0.30
Dec02 $0.23
Dec01 $0.24
Dec00 $0.32
Dec99 $0.12
Dec98 $0.13
Dec97 $0.06
Dec96 $0.09
Dec95 $0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.10
Dec14 $1.90
Dec13 $1.66
Dec12 $1.45
Dec11 $1.29
Dec10 $1.12
Dec09 $0.94
Dec08 $0.89
Dec07 $0.70
Dec06 $0.53
Dec05 $0.42
Dec04 $0.33
Dec03 $0.26
Dec02 $0.23
Dec01 $0.21
Dec00 $0.18
Dec99 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/3/15
Amphenol Corporation Analysis – October 2015 Update $APH
The Best Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – September 2015
The 8 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 6/27/15
Amphenol Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $APH

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.


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