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Conglomerates Stocks

Raven Industries Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $RAVN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Raven Industries Inc (RAVN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Raven Industries, Inc. is a diversified technology company providing a variety of products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction, and military/aerospace markets. The Company markets its products around the world and has its principal operations in the United States. The Company operates in three segments: Applied Technology Division (Applied Technology), Engineered Films Division (Engineered Films) and Aerostar Division (Aerostar). The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells, and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane, and industrial applications. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures products, including balloons, tethered aerostats, and radar processing systems.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RAVN – January 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $538,485,856 0 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 6.34 1 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior 1 Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior 1 Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1.30% 0 Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.73 1 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.04 1 Pass
Score 5
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 6.34 1 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 1 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior 1 Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend 1 Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago 0 Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

RAVN value Chart January 2016

EPSmg $0.85
MG Growth Estimate -3.22%
MG Value $2.43
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $12.34
MG Value based on 0% Growth $7.24
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.61%
Current Price $15.09
% of Intrinsic Value 621.48%

Raven Industries Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size along with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.08 in 2012 to an estimated $0.85 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.61% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Raven Industries Inc (RAVN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

RAVN Charts January 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.43
Graham Number $7.21
PEmg 17.73
Current Ratio 6.34
PB Ratio 2.04
Dividend Yield 3.45%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Oct2015
Total Current Assets $126,665,000
Total Current Liabilities $19,973,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $309,666,000
Intangible Assets $61,382,000
Total Liabilities $37,122,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 36,878,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.31
Jan2015 $0.86
Jan2014 $1.17
Jan2013 $1.44
Jan2012 $1.39
Jan2011 $1.12
Jan2010 $0.79
Jan2009 $0.85
Jan2008 $0.77
Jan2007 $0.70
Jan2006 $0.67
Jan2005 $0.49
Jan2004 $0.39
Jan2003 $0.30
Jan2002 $0.23
Jan2001 $0.16
Jan2000 $0.13
Jan1999 $0.11
Jan1998 $0.14
Jan1997 $0.13
Jan1996 $0.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.85
Jan2015 $1.15
Jan2014 $1.25
Jan2013 $1.24
Jan2012 $1.08
Jan2011 $0.90
Jan2010 $0.78
Jan2009 $0.75
Jan2008 $0.66
Jan2007 $0.58
Jan2006 $0.49
Jan2005 $0.37
Jan2004 $0.28
Jan2003 $0.22
Jan2002 $0.17
Jan2001 $0.14
Jan2000 $0.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Raven Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $RAVN
Raven Industries Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $RAVN

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Raven Industries Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $RAVN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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