CSX Corporation Valuation – February 2016 Update $CSX
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CSX Corporation (CSX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CSX Corporation (CSX), together with its subsidiaries, is a transportation company. The Company provides rail-based transportation services, including traditional rail service and the transport of intermodal containers and trailers. The Company has three lines of business: merchandise business, coal business and the intermodal business. The Company’s merchandise business transports aggregates (which include crushed stone, sand and gravel), metal, phosphate, fertilizer, food, consumer (manufactured goods and appliances), agricultural, automotive, paper and chemical products. Its coal business transports domestic coal, coke and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants, as well as export coal to deep-water port facilities. Through a network of around 50 terminals, the intermodal business serves markets east of the Mississippi and transports manufactured consumer goods in containers, providing truck-like services for longer shipments.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CSX – February 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $21,858,263,746 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.52 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 84.54% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 12.03 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.87 | Pass | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.52 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 10.54 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $1.86 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 3.45% |
| MG Value | $28.69 |
| Opinion | Fairly Valued |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $27.01 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $15.83 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 1.77% |
| Current Price | $22.42 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 78.15% |
CSX Corporation qualifies for both the Enterprising Investor and the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.51 in 2012 to an estimated $1.86 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 1.77% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on CSX Corporation (CSX)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$20.93 |
| Graham Number | $21.59 |
| PEmg | 12.03 |
| Current Ratio | 1.52 |
| PB Ratio | 1.87 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.03% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 12 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | Dec2015 |
| Total Current Assets | $2,966,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $1,952,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $10,683,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $35,039,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $23,371,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 974,940,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.73 |
| Dec2015 | $2.02 |
| Dec2014 | $1.92 |
| Dec2013 | $1.83 |
| Dec2012 | $1.79 |
| Dec2011 | $1.67 |
| Dec2010 | $1.35 |
| Dec2009 | $0.96 |
| Dec2008 | $1.11 |
| Dec2007 | $1.00 |
| Dec2006 | $0.94 |
| Dec2005 | $0.84 |
| Dec2004 | $0.25 |
| Dec2003 | $0.19 |
| Dec2002 | $0.32 |
| Dec2001 | $0.19 |
| Dec2000 | $0.10 |
| Dec1999 | $0.00 |
| Dec1998 | $0.41 |
| Dec1997 | $0.62 |
| Dec1996 | $0.66 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.86 |
| Dec2015 | $1.90 |
| Dec2014 | $1.80 |
| Dec2013 | $1.67 |
| Dec2012 | $1.51 |
| Dec2011 | $1.32 |
| Dec2010 | $1.13 |
| Dec2009 | $1.00 |
| Dec2008 | $0.95 |
| Dec2007 | $0.80 |
| Dec2006 | $0.63 |
| Dec2005 | $0.44 |
| Dec2004 | $0.23 |
| Dec2003 | $0.20 |
| Dec2002 | $0.20 |
| Dec2001 | $0.19 |
| Dec2000 | $0.24 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
