National Oilwell Varco Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $NOV

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how National Oilwell Varco Inc (NOV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) is engaged in providing design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling, completion and production operations. The Company also provides oilfield services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company operates through four segments: Rig Systems, Rig Aftermarket, Wellbore Technologies, and Completion & Production Solutions. Its Rig Systems segment makes and supports the capital equipment and integrated systems needed to drill oil and gas wells on land and offshore. Its Rig Aftermarket segment provides aftermarket products and services to support land and offshore rigs, and drilling rig components manufactured by the Company’s Rig Systems segment. Its Wellbore Technologies segment sells and rents solids control equipment; and provides solids control, waste management and drilling fluids services. Its Completion & Production Solutions segment provides technologies for well completions and oil and gas production.


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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NOV – February 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,643,395,822 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.49 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 24.12% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 6.58 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.60 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.49 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.51 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

NOV value Chart February 2016

EPSmg $4.36
MG Growth Estimate 0.44%
MG Value $40.92
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $63.23
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.07
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.96%
Current Price $28.68
% of Intrinsic Value 70.10%

National Oilwell Varco Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the short dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.24 in 2011 to an estimated $4.36 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of negative 0.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

NOV Charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.76
Graham Number $45.29
PEmg 6.58
Current Ratio 2.49
PB Ratio 0.60
Dividend Yield 6.42%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep2015
Total Current Assets $12,933,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,193,000,000
Long-Term Debt $3,981,000,000
Total Assets $29,628,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,552,000,000
Total Liabilities $11,502,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 381,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.89
Dec2014 $5.82
Dec2013 $5.44
Dec2012 $5.83
Dec2011 $4.70
Dec2010 $3.98
Dec2009 $3.52
Dec2008 $4.90
Dec2007 $3.76
Dec2006 $1.94
Dec2005 $0.91
Dec2004 $0.67
Dec2003 $0.47
Dec2002 $0.45
Dec2001 $0.64
Dec2000 $0.08
Dec1999 -$0.07
Dec1998 $0.60
Dec1997 $0.50
Dec1996 $0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.36
Dec2014 $5.45
Dec2013 $5.07
Dec2012 $4.79
Dec2011 $4.24
Dec2010 $3.88
Dec2009 $3.55
Dec2008 $3.19
Dec2007 $2.07
Dec2006 $1.11
Dec2005 $0.68
Dec2004 $0.53
Dec2003 $0.41
Dec2002 $0.36
Dec2001 $0.33
Dec2000 $0.20
Dec1999 $0.25

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – February 2016
The Best Companies of the Oil & Gas Industry – August 2015
The 20 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/25/15
National Oilwell Varco Analysis – July 2015 Update $NOV
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a High Beta – July 2015

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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