Medical Stocks

Baxter International Inc Valuation – February 2016 $BAX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Baxter International Inc (BAX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Baxter International Inc. (Baxter) is a diversified healthcare company. The Company operates in two segments: BioScience segment, which include three commercial franchises: Hemophilia, BioTherapeutics and BioSurgery, and Medical Products segment, which include four commercial franchises: Fluid Systems, Renal, Specialty Pharmaceuticals and BioPharma Solutions. Its BioScience processes recombinant and plasma-based proteins to treat hemophilia and other bleeding disorders; plasma-based therapies to treat immune deficiencies, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, burns and shock, and other chronic and acute blood-related conditions, and biosurgery products. Its Medical Products manufactures intravenous (IV) solutions and administration sets, premixed drugs and drug-reconstitution systems, pre-filled vials and syringes for injectable drugs, IV nutrition products, infusion pumps and inhalation anesthetics. Its products are used in hospitals, kidney dialysis centers and nursing homes, among others.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BAX

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $19,289,225,443 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.86 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 24.96% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 10.86 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.53 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.86 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.74 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

BAX value chart February 2016

EPSmg $3.31
MG Growth Estimate 0.33%
MG Value $30.34
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $48.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $28.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.18%
Current Price $36.01
% of Intrinsic Value 118.68%

Baxter International Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio as well as the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.24 in 2011 to an estimated $3.31 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 1.18% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

BAX charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.20
Graham Number $23.06
PEmg 10.86
Current Ratio 1.86
PB Ratio 2.53
Dividend Yield 4.65%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep2015
Total Current Assets $11,138,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,981,000,000
Long-Term Debt $3,791,000,000
Total Assets $20,172,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,128,000,000
Total Liabilities $12,348,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 549,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.65
Dec2014 $4.56
Dec2013 $3.66
Dec2012 $4.18
Dec2011 $3.88
Dec2010 $2.39
Dec2009 $3.59
Dec2008 $3.16
Dec2007 $2.61
Dec2006 $2.13
Dec2005 $1.52
Dec2004 $0.63
Dec2003 $1.50
Dec2002 $1.66
Dec2001 $1.09
Dec2000 $1.25
Dec1999 $1.35
Dec1998 $0.55
Dec1997 $0.53
Dec1996 $1.23

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.31
Dec2014 $4.01
Dec2013 $3.67
Dec2012 $3.60
Dec2011 $3.24
Dec2010 $2.88
Dec2009 $2.95
Dec2008 $2.42
Dec2007 $1.93
Dec2006 $1.55
Dec2005 $1.27
Dec2004 $1.17
Dec2003 $1.42
Dec2002 $1.31
Dec2001 $1.07
Dec2000 $1.04
Dec1999 $0.87

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Companies of the Medical Industry – September 2015
Baxter International Analysis – June 2015 Update $BAX
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/15/15
Baxter International Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $BAX
22 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/29/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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