Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how J.M. Smucker Co (SJM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The J. M. Smucker Company is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer food and beverage products and pet food and pet snacks in North America. The Company has four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and International, Foodservice and Natural Foods. The Company’s U.S. retail market segments consist of the sale of branded food products to consumers through retail outlets in North America. The Company’s International, Foodservice and Natural Foods segment represents sales outside of the U.S. retail market segments. The Company’s principal consumer food and beverage products are coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, shortening and oils, baking mixes and ready-to-spread frostings, canned milk, flour and baking ingredients, juices and beverages, frozen sandwiches, toppings, syrups, pickles, condiments, grain products and nut mix products. The Company’s pet products consist of dry and wet dog food, dry and wet cat food, dog snacks and cat snacks.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$15,267,323,112||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.77||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||57.84%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||27.33||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.10||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.77||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||6.29||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||3.02%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$67.56|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$39.60|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||9.42%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||187.92%|
J.M. Smucker Co qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio as well as the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further evaluation of the company.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.88 in 2012 to an estimated $4.66 for 2016. This level of earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$62.58|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||14|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||Oct2015|
|Total Current Assets||$2,006,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$1,132,700,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||119,136,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.25|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.66|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.