Starwood Property Trust Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $STWD
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is a holding company that operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on originating, acquiring, financing and managing commercial mortgage loans, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States and Europe. The Company operates through two segments: Lending Segment, and Investing and Servicing Segment. The Company’s Lending Segment represents investments in real estate-related loans and securities that are held-for-investment. The Investing and Servicing Segment includes servicing businesses in the United States and Europe, an investment business that acquires and manages real estate finance investments, and a mortgage loan business. The Company is externally managed and advised by SPT Management, LLC, an affiliate of Starwood Capital Group.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of STWD
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $4,309,192,222 | Pass | |
| 2. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 3. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 20733233.33% | Pass | |
| 5. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 8.89 | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.02 | Pass | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 2. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 3. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $2.01 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 15.00% |
| MG Value | $77.31 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | B |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $29.12 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $17.07 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 0.20% |
| Current Price | $17.86 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 23.10% |
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.76 in 2011 to an estimated $2.01 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.2% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Graham Number | $29.20 |
| PEmg | 8.89 |
| PB Ratio | 1.02 |
| Dividend Yield | 10.75% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 6 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | Sep2015 |
| Long-Term Debt | $1,320,207,000 |
| Total Assets | $91,819,407,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $331,517,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $87,648,634,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 237,925,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.16 |
| Dec2014 | $2.24 |
| Dec2013 | $1.82 |
| Dec2012 | $1.76 |
| Dec2011 | $1.38 |
| Dec2010 | $1.14 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.01 |
| Dec2014 | $1.84 |
| Dec2013 | $1.50 |
| Dec2012 | $1.18 |
| Dec2011 | $0.76 |
| Dec2010 | $0.38 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
