Aaron’s Inc Valuation – May 2016 $AAN
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Aaron’s Inc (AAN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Aaron’s, Inc. is a specialty retailer of furniture, consumer electronics, computers, appliances and household accessories. The Company’s operating segments include Sales and Lease Ownership, Progressive, HomeSmart, DAMI, Franchise, Manufacturing and Others. The Company’s store-based operations engage in the lease ownership and retail sale of a range of products, such televisions, computers, tablets, mobile phones, living room, dining room and bedroom furniture, mattresses, washers, dryers and refrigerators. Its stores carry brands, such as Samsung, Frigidaire, Hewlett-Packard, LG, Whirlpool, Simmons, Philips, JVC, Sharp and Magnavox. It has approximately 2,040 stores, which consist of over 1,300 Company-operated stores in approximately 30 states, and over 730 independently owned franchised stores in approximately 47 states and Canada. DAMI serves customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending and desire to purchase goods and services from participating merchants.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of AAN – May 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $1,708,505,560 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 2.30 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 44.79% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 13.48 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.23 | Pass | |
| Score | ||||
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 2.30 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 0.65 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $1.77 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 0.80% |
| MG Value | $17.85 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | B |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $25.61 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $15.01 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 2.49% |
| Current Price | $23.81 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 133.39% |
Aaron’s, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the small size. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.68 in 2012 to an estimated $1.77 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Aaron’s, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $3.84 |
| Graham Number | $30.23 |
| PEmg | 13.48 |
| Current Ratio | 2.30 |
| PB Ratio | 1.23 |
| Current Dividend | $0.10 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.40% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 11 |
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Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 3/1/2016 |
| Total Current Assets | $1,411,647,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $612,804,000 |
| Long-term Debt | $518,041,000 |
| Total Assets | $2,548,767,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $792,922,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $1,130,845,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 73,217,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.08 |
| 12/1/2015 | $1.86 |
| 12/1/2014 | $1.08 |
| 12/1/2013 | $1.58 |
| 12/1/2012 | $2.25 |
| 12/1/2011 | $1.43 |
| 12/1/2010 | $1.44 |
| 12/1/2009 | $1.37 |
| 12/1/2008 | $1.11 |
| 12/1/2007 | $0.99 |
| 12/1/2006 | $0.98 |
| 12/1/2005 | $0.76 |
| 12/1/2004 | $0.69 |
| 12/1/2003 | $0.49 |
| 12/1/2002 | $0.38 |
| 12/1/2001 | $0.18 |
| 12/1/2000 | $0.41 |
| 12/1/1999 | $0.37 |
| 12/1/1998 | $0.31 |
| 12/1/1997 | $0.28 |
| 12/1/1996 | $0.23 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.77 |
| 12/1/2015 | $1.62 |
| 12/1/2014 | $1.52 |
| 12/1/2013 | $1.70 |
| 12/1/2012 | $1.68 |
| 12/1/2011 | $1.35 |
| 12/1/2010 | $1.26 |
| 12/1/2009 | $1.13 |
| 12/1/2008 | $0.98 |
| 12/1/2007 | $0.87 |
| 12/1/2006 | $0.76 |
| 12/1/2005 | $0.60 |
| 12/1/2004 | $0.49 |
| 12/1/2003 | $0.38 |
| 12/1/2002 | $0.33 |
| 12/1/2001 | $0.30 |
| 12/1/2000 | $0.35 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
| Aaron’s Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $AAN | |
| Aaron’s Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAN |
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
