Insurance Stocks

The Travelers Companies Valuation – May 2016 $TRV

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how The Travelers Companies (TRV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Travelers Companies, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in providing a range of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations and individuals. It operates through three segments: Business and International Insurance; Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. Business and International Insurance offers an array of property and casualty insurance and insurance related services to its clients, in the United States and in Canada, as well as in the United Kingdom, Brazil and throughout other parts of the world. Bond & Specialty Insurance provides surety, fidelity, management liability, professional liability, and other property and casualty coverages and related risk management services to a range of domestic customers. Personal Insurance writes a range of property and casualty insurance covering individuals’ personal risks.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TRV – May 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $32,253,300,176 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 67.13% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.53 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.36 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TRV value Chart May 2016

EPSmg $9.60
MG Growth Estimate 11.25%
MG Value $297.64
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A
MG Value based on 3% Growth $139.20
MG Value based on 0% Growth $81.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.52%
Current Price $110.73
% of Intrinsic Value 37.20%

Travelers Companies Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.49 in 2012 to an estimated $9.6 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Travelers Companies Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TRV Charts May 2016

Graham Number $125.87
PEmg 11.53
PB Ratio 1.36
Current Dividend $2.44
Dividend Yield 2.20%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 11

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
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GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Long-term Debt $6,344,000,000
Total Assets $101,680,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,863,000,000
Total Liabilities $77,514,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 297,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.52
12/1/2015 $10.88
12/1/2014 $10.70
12/1/2013 $9.74
12/1/2012 $6.30
12/1/2011 $3.36
12/1/2010 $6.62
12/1/2009 $6.33
12/1/2008 $4.82
12/1/2007 $6.86
12/1/2006 $5.91
12/1/2005 $2.33
12/1/2004 $1.53
12/1/2003 $2.72
12/1/2002 $0.92
12/1/2001 -$5.22
12/1/2000 $4.24
12/1/1999 $3.41
12/1/1998 $0.32
12/1/1997 $3.83
12/1/1996 $2.47

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.60
12/1/2015 $9.49
12/1/2014 $8.31
12/1/2013 $6.90
12/1/2012 $5.49
12/1/2011 $5.25
12/1/2010 $6.17
12/1/2009 $5.71
12/1/2008 $5.03
12/1/2007 $4.71
12/1/2006 $3.32
12/1/2005 $1.50
12/1/2004 $1.01
12/1/2003 $0.90
12/1/2002 $0.24
12/1/2001 $0.37
12/1/2000 $3.06

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2016
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – February 2016
11 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/21/15
Travelers Companies Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TRV
5 Undervalued Dow Stocks to Research – November 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Principal Financial Group Inc Valuation – March 2016 $PFG
Assurant Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AIZ
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Chubb Ltd Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CB
Humana Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $HUM
Prudential Financial Inc Valuation – February 2016 $PRU
Anthem Inc Valuation – February 2016 $ANTM
American Financial Group Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AFG
Aflac Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AFL

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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