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Electronic Arts Inc Valuation – May 2016 $EA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Electronic Arts Inc (EA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Electronic Arts Inc is a game software content and services provider. The Company develops, markets, publishes and distributes game software content for consumers of various video game machines and electronic devices. It also provides game software-related services. The Company’s brands include Battlefield, Mass Effect, Need for Speed, Dragon Age, The Sims, Bejeweled and Plants v. Zombies, as well as brands based on licensed intellectual property such as FIFA, Madden NFL and Star Wars. The Company is organized around three divisions: EA Studios, Maxis and EA Mobile. The EA Studios division develops games and related content and services across a range of game categories, including the FIFA, Madden NFL, Need for Speed, Battlefield, Mass Effect and Dragon Age. The Maxis division creates games, and related content and services that engage player creativity. The EA Mobile division focuses on developing and publishing interactive games for mobile phones and tablets.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EA – May 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,593,909,120 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -239.83% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 27.98 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.24 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.80 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.51 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EA value chart May 2016

EPSmg $2.66
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $102.51
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.61
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.63
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.74%
Current Price $74.49
% of Intrinsic Value 72.66%

Electronic Arts Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.51 in 2013 to an estimated $2.66 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 9.74% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Electronic Arts Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

EA charts May 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.12
Graham Number $29.40
PEmg 27.98
Current Ratio 1.80
PB Ratio 7.24
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $4,354,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,418,000,000
Long-term Debt $989,000,000
Total Assets $7,050,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,767,000,000
Total Liabilities $3,654,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 330,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.50
3/1/2016 $3.50
3/1/2015 $2.69
3/1/2014 $0.03
3/1/2013 $0.31
3/1/2012 $0.23
3/1/2011 -$0.84
3/1/2010 -$2.08
3/1/2009 -$3.40
3/1/2008 -$1.45
3/1/2007 $0.24
3/1/2006 $0.75
3/1/2005 $1.59
3/1/2004 $1.87
3/1/2003 $1.09
3/1/2002 $0.36
3/1/2001 -$0.04
3/1/2000 $0.44
3/1/1999 $0.29
3/1/1998 $0.30
3/1/1997 $0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.66
3/1/2016 $1.95
3/1/2015 $0.94
3/1/2014 -$0.11
3/1/2013 -$0.51
3/1/2012 -$1.11
3/1/2011 -$1.69
3/1/2010 -$1.81
3/1/2009 -$1.27
3/1/2008 $0.07
3/1/2007 $0.92
3/1/2006 $1.22
3/1/2005 $1.29
3/1/2004 $1.01
3/1/2003 $0.53
3/1/2002 $0.25
3/1/2001 $0.22

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Electronic Arts Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $EA
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) Annual Valuation

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Mattel Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $MAT
Electronic Arts Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $EA

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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