Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Progressive Corporation (PGR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company’s insurance subsidiaries and affiliates provide personal and commercial automobile and property insurance, other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services. The Company operates through Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Property segments. The Company operates its vehicle businesses and property business in the United States. It also sells personal auto physical damage and auto property damage liability insurance in Australia. Its Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos, and recreational and other vehicles. Its Commercial Lines business writes primary liability, physical damage and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned and/or operated predominately by small businesses as a part of the commercial auto market. Its Property business writes homeowners and renters insurance, primarily in the Agency channel in over 31 states and the District of Columbia.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$19,063,876,769||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||88.14%||Pass|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||17.35||Pass|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.53||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||4.58%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$27.30|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$16.00|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.42%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||98.19%|
Progressive Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.44 in 2012 to an estimated $1.88 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
Progressive Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||3|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2016|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||585,500,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.57|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.88|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.