Western Refining Inc. Valuation – June 2016 $WNR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Western Refining Inc (WNR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Western Refining, Inc. (Western) is a crude oil refiner and marketer of refined products. The Company operates through four segments: refining, Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI), Western Refining Logistics, LP (WNRL) and retail. Its refining segment owns and operates over two refineries in the Southwest that process crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and asphalt. Its NTI segment owns and operates refining and transportation assets and operates and supports retail convenience stores in the Upper Great Plains region of the United States. Its WNRL segment owns and operates terminal, storage, transportation and wholesale assets consisting of a fleet of crude oil and refined product truck transports and wholesale petroleum product operations in the Southwest region. WNRL’s primary customer is its refineries in the Southwest. Its retail segment operates retail convenience stores and unmanned commercial fleet fueling locations located in the Southwest.


To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of WNR – June 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,839,371,430 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.36 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 21180.00% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 6.57 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.55 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.36 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.60 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

WNR value chart June 2016

EPSmg $3.13
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $120.61
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.63
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.97%
Current Price $20.57
% of Intrinsic Value 17.06%

Western Refining, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.03 in 2012 to an estimated $3.13 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.97% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Western Refining, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

WNR charts June 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$29.10
Graham Number $15.01
PEmg 6.57
Current Ratio 2.36
PB Ratio 1.55
Current Dividend $1.44
Dividend Yield 7.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5


Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,853,333,000
Total Current Liabilities $786,682,000
Long-Term Debt $1,705,782,000
Total Assets $5,753,762,000
Intangible Assets $1,374,718,000
Total Liabilities $4,534,528,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 92,144,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.75
Dec2015 $4.28
Dec2014 $5.61
Dec2013 $2.79
Dec2012 $3.71
Dec2011 $1.34
Dec2010 -$0.19
Dec2009 -$4.43
Dec2008 $0.95
Dec2007 $3.53
Dec2006 $3.11
Dec2005 $2.94

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.13
Dec2015 $4.06
Dec2014 $3.52
Dec2013 $1.87
Dec2012 $1.03
Dec2011 -$0.13
Dec2010 -$0.38
Dec2009 $0.09
Dec2008 $2.27
Dec2007 $2.59
Dec2006 $1.82
Dec2005 $0.98

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – May 2016
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – May 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – May 2016
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – May 2016
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – February 2016

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Cameron International Company Valuation – May 2016 $CAM
FMC Technologies Inc Valuation – March 2016 $FTI
Phillips 66 Valuation – March 2016 $PSX
Valero Energy Corp Valuation – February 2016 $VLO
Schlumberger Ltd Valuation – February 2016 $SLB
National Oilwell Varco Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $NOV
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $SWN
Apache Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $APC
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – December 2015 Update $COG


The author held a long position in Western Refining Inc. but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.