Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today -Â JuneÂ 2016.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance): Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. is engaged in offshore drilling and providing contract drilling services to the energy industry. The Company has a fleet of approximately 30 offshore drilling rigs, such as semisubmersibles, jack-ups and dynamically positioned (DP) drillships. Its fleet offers a range of services around the world in the floater market (ultra-deepwater, deepwater and mid-water). Its Jack-up rigs are mobile, self-elevating drilling platforms equipped with legs that are lowered to the ocean floor. Its jack-ups are used for drilling in water depths from 20 feet to 350 feet. All of its jack-up rigs are equipped with a cantilever system that enables the rig to extend its drilling package over the aft end of the rig. Its drillships and semisubmersible rigs include Ocean Greatwhite, Ocean Valor, Ocean Courage, Ocean BlackHornet, Ocean BlackRhino and others. It provides offshore drilling services to oils and gas companies and government-owned oil companies.
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ModernGraham Valuation of DO – July 2016
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$3,703,279,779||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.61||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-95.24%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||24.41||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||0.83||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.61||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||8.46||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$14.99|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$8.79|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.96%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $6.89 in 2012 to an estimated $1.03 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$15.56|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$615,034,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$380,987,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||137,206,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$0.40|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.03|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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