Retail Stocks

GameStop Corp Valuation – July 2016 $GME

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how GameStop Corp (GME) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): GameStop Corp. is an omnichannel video game retailer. The Company sells video game hardware, physical and digital video game software, video game accessories, as well as mobile and consumer electronics products and other merchandise through its GameStop, EB Games and Micromania stores. The Company operates its business in four Video Game Brands segments: United States, Canada, Australia and Europe, and Technology Brands segment. Each of the Video Game Brands segments consists of retail operations, with all stores engaged in the sale of new and pre-owned video game systems, software and accessories. Its Video Game Brands stores sell various types of digital products, including downloadable content, network points cards, prepaid digital, prepaid subscription cards and digitally downloadable software, and also sell certain mobile and consumer electronics products and collectible products. Its Technology Brands segment includes its Spring Mobile and Simply Mac businesses.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GME – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,191,448,649 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.49 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 74.61% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 9.46 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.49 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.49 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.21 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

GME value chart July 2016

EPSmg $3.26
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $125.33
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $47.20
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.67
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.48%
Current Price $30.81
% of Intrinsic Value 24.58%

GameStop Corp. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.92 in 2013 to an estimated $3.26 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.48% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

GameStop Corp. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

GME charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.43
Graham Number $42.60
PEmg 9.46
Current Ratio 1.49
PB Ratio 1.49
Current Dividend $1.45
Dividend Yield 4.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,037,100,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,366,000,000
Long-Term Debt $812,400,000
Total Assets $4,446,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,825,400,000
Total Liabilities $2,289,900,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 104,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.89
Jan2016 $3.78
Jan2015 $3.47
Jan2014 $2.99
Jan2013 -$2.13
Jan2012 $2.41
Jan2011 $2.65
Jan2010 $2.25
Jan2009 $2.38
Jan2008 $1.75
Jan2007 $1.00
Jan2006 $0.81
Jan2005 $0.56
Jan2004 $0.53
Jan2003 $0.44
Jan2002 $0.09
Jan2001 -$0.17

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.26
Jan2016 $2.66
Jan2015 $2.03
Jan2014 $1.41
Jan2013 $0.92
Jan2012 $2.39
Jan2011 $2.26
Jan2010 $1.92
Jan2009 $1.60
Jan2008 $1.12
Jan2007 $0.76
Jan2006 $0.59
Jan2005 $0.41
Jan2004 $0.30
Jan2003 $0.15
Jan2002 $0.01
Jan2001 -$0.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – June 2015
GameStop Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $GME
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – November 2014
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/17/14
Gamestop Corp (GME) Annual Valuation – 2014

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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