Rowan Companies PLC Valuation – July 2016 $RDC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Rowan Companies PLC (RDC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Rowan Companies plc is a provider of offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. The Company operates through two segments: deepwater and jack-ups. Its deepwater segment consists of drillship operations. Its fleet consists of approximately 30 mobile offshore drilling units, including self-elevating jack-up rigs and ultra-deepwater drillships. Its drilling fleet consists of approximately four ultra-deepwater drillships; 20 high-specification cantilever jack-up rigs, including three N-Class rigs, four EXL class rigs, three 240C class rigs, four enhanced Super Gorilla class rigs, one Gorilla class rig, and four Tarzan Class rigs, and eight cantilever jack-up rigs, including two Gorilla class rigs and six 116-C class rigs. The Company’s fleet operates across the world, including the United States Gulf of Mexico, the United Kingdom and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea, the Middle East and Trinidad.

RDC Chart

RDC data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RDC – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,918,017,178 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -92.31% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.91 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.41 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.48 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.58 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

RDC value chart July 2016

EPSmg $0.73
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.61
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.22
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.71%
Current Price $16.04
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Rowan Companies PLC does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.2 in 2012 to an estimated $0.73 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.71% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Rowan Companies PLC receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

RDC charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.48
Graham Number $30.40
PEmg 21.91
Current Ratio 3.48
PB Ratio 0.41
Current Dividend $0.40
Dividend Yield 2.49%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,041,844,000
Total Current Liabilities $299,257,000
Long-Term Debt $2,655,043,000
Total Assets $8,392,127,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $3,492,094,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 125,802,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.05
Dec2015 $0.75
Dec2014 -$0.93
Dec2013 $2.03
Dec2012 $1.46
Dec2011 $5.83
Dec2010 $2.36
Dec2009 $3.24
Dec2008 $3.77
Dec2007 $4.31
Dec2006 $2.85
Dec2005 $2.08
Dec2004 -$0.01
Dec2003 -$0.08
Dec2002 $0.90
Dec2001 $0.80
Dec2000 $0.74
Dec1999 -$0.12
Dec1998 $1.43
Dec1997 $1.65
Dec1996 $0.70

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.73
Dec2015 $0.99
Dec2014 $1.46
Dec2013 $2.76
Dec2012 $3.20
Dec2011 $4.01
Dec2010 $3.17
Dec2009 $3.47
Dec2008 $3.25
Dec2007 $2.61
Dec2006 $1.55
Dec2005 $0.85
Dec2004 $0.31
Dec2003 $0.46
Dec2002 $0.74
Dec2001 $0.74
Dec2000 $0.77

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
Rowan Companies plc Annual Valuation – 2015 $RDC
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/29/14
Rowan Companies (RDC) Annual Valuation – 2014

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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