Media Entertainment Stocks

Discovery Communications Inc Valuation – August 2016 $DISCA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Discovery Communications Inc (DISCA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Discovery Communications, Inc., (Discovery) is a global media company. The Company provides content across multiple distribution platforms, including pay-television (pay-TV), free-to-air and broadcast television, Websites, digital distribution arrangements and content licensing agreements. Its segments are U.S. Networks, which consists principally of domestic television networks and Websites; International Networks, which consists primarily of international television networks and Websites; Education and Other, which consists principally of curriculum-based product and service offerings, and production studios, and Corporate and Inter-segment Eliminations. It distributes customized content in the United States, and over 220 other countries and territories in over 40 languages. The Company’s global portfolio of networks includes television brands, such as Discovery Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Investigation Discovery, Science and Velocity (known as Turbo outside of the United States).

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DISCA Chart

DISCA data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DISCA – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,852,566,755 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.94 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 392.16% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.22 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.91 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.94 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

DISCA value chart August 2016

EPSmg $1.63
MG Growth Estimate 8.07%
MG Value $40.10
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.60
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.83
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.36%
Current Price $24.77
% of Intrinsic Value 61.77%

Discovery Communications Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.06 in 2012 to an estimated $1.63 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.36% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Discovery Communications Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

DISCA charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.45
Graham Number $22.86
PEmg 15.22
Current Ratio 1.94
PB Ratio 2.91
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,667,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,375,000,000
Long-Term Debt $7,965,000,000
Total Assets $15,878,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,954,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,512,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 630,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.78
Dec2015 $1.58
Dec2014 $1.66
Dec2013 $1.49
Dec2012 $1.24
Dec2011 $1.40
Dec2010 $0.76
Dec2009 $0.65
Dec2008 $0.49
Dec2007 -$0.12
Dec2006 -$0.08
Dec2005 $0.06
Dec2004 $0.12
Dec2003 -$0.10
Dec2002 -$0.23
Dec2001 -$1.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.63
Dec2015 $1.53
Dec2014 $1.43
Dec2013 $1.25
Dec2012 $1.06
Dec2011 $0.86
Dec2010 $0.50
Dec2009 $0.32
Dec2008 $0.13
Dec2007 -$0.04
Dec2006 -$0.01
Dec2005 -$0.07
Dec2004 -$0.18
Dec2003 -$0.31
Dec2002 -$0.37
Dec2001 -$0.36

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Discovery Communications Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $DISCA
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
Discovery Communications 2014 Annual Valuation $DISCA

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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