Johnson & Johnson Valuation – August 2016 $JNJ

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Johnson & Johnson is a holding company, which is engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field. The Company’s segments include Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices. The Consumer segment includes a range of products used in the baby care, oral care, skin care, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, women’s health and wound care markets. The Pharmaceutical segment is focused on over five therapeutic areas, including immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, and cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. The Medical Devices segment includes a range of products used in the orthopedic, surgery, cardiovascular, diabetes care and vision care fields. Its research facilities are located in the United States, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JNJ – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $333,138,162,455 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.08 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 36.43% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.22 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.08 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.55 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

JNJ value chart August 2016

EPSmg $5.50
MG Growth Estimate 5.31%
MG Value $105.21
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $79.80
MG Value based on 0% Growth $46.78
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.86%
Current Price $122.31
% of Intrinsic Value 116.25%

Johnson & Johnson is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.06 in 2012 to an estimated $5.5 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Johnson & Johnson revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $59.83. The company pays a dividend of $3.05 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.22, which was below the industry average of 38.69, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.38.

Johnson & Johnson performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

JNJ charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.38
Graham Number $59.83
PEmg 22.22
Current Ratio 3.08
PB Ratio 4.72
Current Dividend $3.05
Dividend Yield 2.49%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $66,291,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $21,536,000,000
Long-Term Debt $24,535,000,000
Total Assets $139,814,000,000
Intangible Assets $47,798,000,000
Total Liabilities $67,341,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,794,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.01
Dec2015 $5.48
Dec2014 $5.70
Dec2013 $4.81
Dec2012 $3.86
Dec2011 $3.49
Dec2010 $4.78
Dec2009 $4.40
Dec2008 $4.57
Dec2007 $3.63
Dec2006 $3.73
Dec2005 $3.35
Dec2004 $2.74
Dec2003 $2.29
Dec2002 $2.16
Dec2001 $1.84
Dec2000 $1.61
Dec1999 $1.39
Dec1998 $1.06
Dec1997 $1.21
Dec1996 $1.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.50
Dec2015 $5.06
Dec2014 $4.74
Dec2013 $4.26
Dec2012 $4.06
Dec2011 $4.17
Dec2010 $4.41
Dec2009 $4.13
Dec2008 $3.87
Dec2007 $3.39
Dec2006 $3.13
Dec2005 $2.72
Dec2004 $2.31
Dec2003 $2.01
Dec2002 $1.79
Dec2001 $1.54
Dec2000 $1.35

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Johnson & Johnson Valuation – January 2016 Update $JNJ
Johnson & Johnson Analysis – September 2015 Update $JNJ
Johnson & Johnson Analysis – June 2015 Quarterly Update $JNJ
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/28/15
Johnson and Johnson Company Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $JNJ

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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