Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Air Products & Chemicals Inc (APD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is an industrial gases company. The Company’s Industrial Gases business provides atmospheric and process gases and related equipment to manufacturing markets, including refining and petrochemical, metals, electronics, and food and beverage. The Company operates through seven segments: Industrial Gases-Americas, Industrial Gases-Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), Industrial Gases-Asia, Industrial Gases-Global, Materials Technologies, Energy-from-Waste, and Corporate and other. The Company is also a supplier of liquefied natural gas process technology and equipment. The Company’s Materials Technologies business serves the semiconductor, polyurethanes, cleaning and coatings, and adhesives industries. The Company manufactures and distributes products in two lines of business: Industrial Gases and Materials Technologies.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$33,521,097,991||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.92||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||14.98%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||34.14||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||4.75||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.92||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-14.01||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-1.37%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$65.01|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$38.11|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||12.82%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||592.61%|
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.93 in 2012 to an estimated $4.48 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.82% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $47.02. The company pays a dividend of $3.34 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 34.13, which was above the industry average of 18.73. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-30.48.
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$30.48|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||20|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$3,378,800,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$3,658,900,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||218,500,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.02|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.48|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.