Airlines Stocks

American Airlines Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Airlines Group Inc. (AAG) is a holding company whose primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier through its subsidiaries, American Airlines, Inc. (American) and its regional subsidiaries, Envoy Aviation Group Inc. (Envoy), Piedmont Airlines, Inc. (Piedmont) and PSA Airlines, Inc. (PSA). The Company has hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington, D.C. Together with its regional airline subsidiaries and third-party regional carriers operating as American Eagle, the Company’s airline operates an average of approximately 6,700 flights per day to over 350 destinations in approximately 50 countries. The Company operates approximately 940 mainline aircraft and is supported by its regional airline subsidiaries and third-party regional carriers, which operates an additional 587 regional aircraft.

AAL Chart

AAL data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAL – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $19,241,624,669 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.75 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -165.44% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 9.11 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.79 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.75 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AAL value chart August 2016

EPSmg $4.00
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $154.18
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $58.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.04
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.31%
Current Price $36.49
% of Intrinsic Value 23.67%

American Airlines Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-10.72 in 2012 to an estimated $4 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.31% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American Airlines Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.81. The company pays a dividend of $0.4 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 9.11, which was below the industry average of 14.03, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-62.81.

American Airlines Group Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AAL charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$62.81
Graham Number $29.81
PEmg 9.11
Current Ratio 0.75
PB Ratio 4.79
Current Dividend $0.40
Dividend Yield 1.10%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $11,184,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $14,917,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $51,051,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,304,000,000
Total Liabilities $46,739,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 566,040,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.92
Dec2015 $11.07
Dec2014 $3.93
Dec2013 -$6.54
Dec2012 -$7.52
Dec2011 -$15.83
Dec2010 -$3.78
Dec2009 -$13.36
Dec2008 -$21.85
Dec2007 $4.77
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 -$13.87
Dec2004 -$12.69
Dec2003 -$20.78
Dec2002 -$60.46
Dec2001 -$30.60
Dec2000 $13.47
Dec1999 $16.76
Dec1998 $20.13
Dec1997 $14.43
Dec1996 $14.97

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.00
Dec2015 $1.37
Dec2014 -$4.30
Dec2013 -$8.75
Dec2012 -$10.72
Dec2011 -$11.55
Dec2010 -$8.38
Dec2009 -$9.90
Dec2008 -$8.18
Dec2007 -$3.56
Dec2006 -$12.16
Dec2005 -$22.26
Dec2004 -$25.04
Dec2003 -$26.25
Dec2002 -$22.04
Dec2001 $0.39
Dec2000 $15.91

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

American Airlines Group Analysis – 2015 Initial Coverage $AAL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Delta Air Lines Inc Valuation – July 2016 $DAL
Southwest Airlines Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $LUV
Alaska Air Group Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALK
American Airlines Group Analysis – 2015 Initial Coverage $AAL
Delta Air Lines Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $DAL
Southwest Airlines Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $LUV

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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